Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if China directly engages in military conflict before December 31, 2026. "Direct engagement" means Chinese military forces (PLA, PLAN, PLAAF, or affiliated paramilitary forces) initiate or participate in armed combat operations resulting in exchange of fire or kinetic action against another nation's military or civilian targets.
Coercive military activities that do not involve direct combat—such as blockades, military exercises, incursions into airspace or territorial waters, or coast guard operations—do not qualify. The conflict must involve actual combat operations.
Resolution sources: Official statements from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, US Department of Defense, Taiwan Ministry of National Defense, and major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera).
1,000NO @ 10%. Xi purged top military leadership in 2024-25, effectively shelving invasion capability for 2+ years. US intelligence reassessed — imminent Taiwan attack now considered unlikely (CNN, March 2026). ASPI Strategist: "2026 is not the year." GMF estimates 100K+ fatalities in a Taiwan invasion with $2-10T economic losses — massive deterrent. PLA amphibious logistics still have critical gaps. And with a slowing domestic economy, property crisis, and high youth unemployment, Beijing has every incentive to avoid costly military adventures. Resolution requires actual exchange of fire, not gray-zone coercion. ~8 months is a long time but the structural barriers are high.