Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the option that best describes the nature of a major China-Japan conflict occurring before January 1, 2027, at 00:00 UTC.

• Yes, via naval or aerial skirmish: Resolves YES if there is a documented, direct military engagement between the armed forces of China and Japan (including Coast Guard or Air Force assets) resulting in loss of life, sunken vessels, or downed aircraft.

• Yes, via economic or cyber warfare: Resolves YES if there is a major, official, and widely acknowledged act of state-sponsored cyber warfare (e.g., critical infrastructure shutdown) or a formal, total cessation of trade/sanctions equivalent to economic warfare, occurring specifically due to bilateral conflict.

• No, diplomatic tensions remain below armed conflict: Resolves YES if, despite high tensions, no incidents meeting the definitions above occur.

• No, status quo persists: Resolves YES if the relationship continues under the current framework of geopolitical competition without significant escalation or de-escalation by January 1, 2027.

If multiple options occur, the market will resolve to the most significant event as determined by international reporting from major news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, Nikkei). If no major conflict event occurs, the market will default to one of the "No" options based on the geopolitical state at that time.

Background

The relationship between China and Japan is characterized by long-standing disputes, primarily regarding the sovereignty of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea, historical grievances, and competing regional influence. Increasing military activity in the region has led to concerns regarding accidental escalation. This market covers the period leading up to 2027, a year often cited by analysts as a point of increased geopolitical focus regarding regional stability. Traders should monitor official statements from the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs for reports of escalatory incidents.

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