Resolution criteria Resolves based on official statements or verified reporting from major news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP) WTI and Brent crude below $120 until June 1, 2026: MarketWatch S&P 500: MarketWatch. Update 2026-04-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The S&P 500 data source has been changed from S&P Dow Jones Indices to MarketWatch, which provides five-minute candle data in addition to the same closing prices.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, It lasts for exactly 2 weeks, followed by WTI and Brent below $120 till June and War ends permanently are most likely. See the market for live updates (13 traders, as of Apr 15, 2026).

April 8, US-IRAN war ceasefire: prop bets

Ṁ150Ṁ557

May 31

32%

It lasts for exactly 2 weeks

19%

WTI and Brent below $120 till June

16%

War ends permanently

Resolved

YES

S&P 500 remains above $6550 till April 15

Resolved

YES

S&P 500 exceeds $6900 by April 15

Resolution criteria

Resolves based on official statements or verified reporting from major news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP)

WTI and Brent crude below $120 until June 1, 2026: MarketWatch

S&P 500: MarketWatch.

Update 2026-04-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The S&P 500 data source has been changed from S&P Dow Jones Indices to MarketWatch, which provides five-minute candle data in addition to the same closing prices.

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S&P 500 went up to 6,950 today, and it seems that the Strait of Hormuz is closed due to a blockade, so I am resolving three of the options. https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5828980-trump-blockade-strait-hormuz/

@traders I've changed the source of the S&P 500. It's now MarketWatch because it's much clearer over there. I hope no one has any problems as both the sources report the same closes, but MarketWatch gives five-minute candle data.