Who will finish top 10 in FOLDED?
28
400Ṁ5647
Aug 14
89%

When a day of FOLDED starts with exactly 10 players remaining, all remaining players resolve YES. Additionally, if no day of FOLDED starts with exactly ten players (due to multiple players being eliminated at once), all players who were present on the last day with 10 players or more will resolve YES (e.g. if there are 11 players remaining on Day 13 and the player count drops to 9 going into Day 14, the two eliminated players are considered to be tied for 10th place and will both resolve YES.) If the game ends early with more than 10 players remaining, all options resolve NO. Players who are eliminated at 11th place or worse will resolve NO as they are removed from the game. The host does not count as a player for the purposes of this market. As of August 9, there are 11 players remaining.

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sold Ṁ37 YES

@Quroe buy limit order at 1 percent yes, i will fill as I am quitting manifold

@121 Excuse me, what?

@Quroe I am quitting manifold, because I suck as a forecaster :( Nice knowing everyone here

@121 :(

filled a Ṁ17 YES at 1.0% order

@121 I mean, sure, limit orders on you at 1% are up now, but past performance doesn't mean that future performance isn't going to be the same. We learn and get better.

sold Ṁ1 YES

@Quroe this website is gambling addiction 💀

So I put all my mana (only 12000 from 62000) on daily coinflip

@Quroe well I am not deleting my account

@121 It certainly can be that if you want it to be. But it can be curated not to be.

I know I was training my aim on you in this game, but I was trying my best to be cordial and keep it professional.

If, however, you dispute that, I would certainly like to talk it out with you and work with you.

@Quroe um it is not related to folded at all

@121 Talk it out with me. *pats hand on bench

What's up, friend?

@Quroe

sent in dm

@121 Well, hot damn.

I'm glad you learned this about yourself with play money instead of real money. I'd say you dodged a bullet.

Feel free to swing around and at least see the odds on various things at times. Fact checking the news here by window shopping and just watching the markets has always been a fun and enlightening pass time for me.

I wish you luck. The good kind.

@121 hey even if you don't feel like betting anymore I think it's still worth hanging around just for the polls, posts, and comments

@TheAllMemeingEye ok, i decided to only half quit because i won coinflip

@121 Welcome back! I am much less incentivized to knock you out of the game now that my position is exited. (I was enjoying the rivalry, though.)

I did not say I did not quit folded yet 💀 folded is too hard

@121 sorry, I'm confused, do you intend to keep playing folded?

maybe

@121 I believe in you 🤞

redacted

is bandors dead?

@121 He's taking his daughter to school. Since you can't message him the check-in password, I guess you'll have to wait until he fixes it.

@Quroe im not dead?

filled a Ṁ20 YES at 45% order

@121 Strange! I thought I clicked your account and it said it was deleted just now.

bought Ṁ10 YES

@Quroe that was my alt i created and deleted

@121 Darn. You baited me with that, whether intentionally or not.

@Quroe i missed profit opportunity 😡 I had 0 mana and had to withdrawal 2000 mana from fields medal market because you filled me limit order

@121 Oh well. C'est la vie. I'll just have to stomach that loss. (Edit: the loss I speak of is from @Dagonet predating on my foolishness.)

@Quroe rip I had to create a alt because I got blocked by @Bandors

@Quroe In all fairness, you did give him the impetus to do so.

i missed profit opportunity 😡

There is a cost to having no balance to deploy. Think of your balance as an expectation of your ability to find future opportunities.

If you zero out your balance, you have implicitly stated that your expected value from random-chance, time sensitive opportunities is lower than the expected value of your current all-in position.

A gun not loaded in combat is only useful as material for a splint. Keep it loaded if you wish to use it for its real purpose.

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