Resolves to the first season that @evan does not finish in first place in his Manifold league cohort.
Some background: I joined Manifold for the first time in Season 9, and finished in first place in my Bronze, Gold, and Platinum leagues before deleting my account in Diamond league in protest of the pivot. Now I'm back, and I've won my Bronze League cohort in Season 22 and all of Gold League in Season 23. Thought it would be cool to bring this back. Credit goes to @mattyb for the original idea.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ173 | |
| 2 | Ṁ52 | |
| 3 | Ṁ33 | |
| 4 | Ṁ25 | |
| 5 | Ṁ23 |
@traders I stand defeated. Since May 29, four days ago, I have lost over 85,000 mana. In fact, every one of my major predictions has been wrong since the election of the Pope almost a month ago.
"The conclave would only have one to two black smoke signals before electing the Pope" - happened, won Ṁ30,248
"The median holder will have spent Ṁ60 or less on this self-resolving market when it closes" - didn't happen, lost Ṁ112,725
"NVIDIA will be the most valuable company in the world at the end of May" - didn't happen, lost Ṁ10,125
"Bitcoin will reach $115k by the end of May" - Bet YES, sold at a loss, switched to NO, sold at a loss, switched to YES, resolved NO, lost Ṁ12,599
"Inter will beat PSG in their Champions League final" - they lost 0-5, I lost Ṁ24,881, finally returning me to below first place in my Diamond league
Congratulations to @vitamind who will be promoting to Masters instead of me. I may not be a superforecaster after all...
My new goal is to try and successfully pay back nearly a quarter million mana in debt due by the end of the month. Should be fun!
@evan yeah it goes without saying that any future loans from The All Memeing Bank will either require much higher interest or RISK loan insurance haha
