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That was fun. Microsoft wins this month after some eventful last few days. Next month's market:

@Bayesian markets closed for the month. final rankings:

@deagol ty!

I am the sunk cost fallacy.

Just a Hi to all from the Smug crowd who didn't panic when Nvidia went up 5%....must admit even that was probably because if it had stayed where it was it was already too late to switch.

@Silverpawn I panicked, sold, thought, "this is stupid", and bought msft again

MSFT

I should have followed my gut! I knew it was going to reverse.

I swear I am like a prediction magnet- except the magnet is always oriented such that every prediction I make automatically sends the market in the opposite direction. Jeeeeeze I am losing so much! lol

@crowlsyong If you buy some NO shares on NVIDIA you might get it to resolves YES... Worth a shot maybe

@evan I'm nearly at the point where I would do that, just to see if the universe it out to get me lol. It feels like I have a superpower here.

@crowlsyong well better than me, I noped out and took a M50 hit just to see the market back around msft 80% 😭

@MarySmith yay I only lost M33 😂

Someone should make a market on the range of this market within 24 hours /hj

Looks like I might not have to retire in shame just yet!

@Panfilo Nvidia has done some damage to my psyche on Metaculus on a couple occasions now. It should not be performing this well.

@bens my priors were that most of any changes would be baked in and it certainly wasn’t going to be a big good surprise. I switched my position only to find out Polymarket was inflated, and then I held figuring we had two days for the peak to wear off and that I couldn’t get a sufficient counterparty in time to bail anyway. Could still implode but I feel embarrassed by breaking my nw% rule either way.

and this calls itself a "prediction" market, smh

This is going to be one of those bets where we won't know until the last minute. Sure things keep on changing.

Solid lead

@deagol ok it's over 80% sure says that betting site

@deagol so it has to stay over 141 a share? thats doesnt sound 80% likely, but im sure the derivatives say otherwise

@256 can't go by a fixed level, it's the ratio vs. MSFT something like .305x

@deagol and MSFT now in the red oh no

@deagol i mean, roughly speaking. i was a lot calmer when it was at 3.5t cap :^

@256 these markets trade like there's no tomorrow, whatever the current state must hold, as if it'll close within the next hour. too crazy for my liking, but still kinda fun.