In the papal conclave, black smoke signals indicate that no candidate has secured the required two-thirds majority vote, while white smoke announces the election of a new Pope. This market predicts the total number of black smoke signals that will occur before the next Pope is elected. The resolution will be based on official reports from the Vatican and reputable news sources. For context on the conclave process and smoke signals, see AP News.

I reserve the option to close the market a few minutes or hours before the expected smoke (and reopen the market in case of a black smoke), to avoid someone betting after a white smoke.