I have been conducting an informal survey of AI safety experts to elicit their opinions on various topics. I will end up with responses from around 20 people, including researchers at DeepMind, Anthropic, Redwood, FAR AI, and others. The sample was pseudo-randomly selected, optimising for a) diversity of opinion, b) diversity of background, c) seniority, and d) who I could easily track down.

One of my questions was: "What is your modal guess of what the first human-level AI will look like? I define human-level AI as an AI system that can carry out 100% of economically valuable cognitive tasks more cheaply than a human." I asked participants to answer from their inside view as much as possible.

Which theme of answer came up most often?

I will resolve this question when the post for this survey is published, which will happen some time between March and June. Thanks to Rubi Hudson for suggesting turning this into a prediction market.