When will the first AI-generated book be on the New York Times Best Seller list?
Plus
18
Ṁ10292099
3%
75%
Before 2030
10%
Between 2030-2039
0.2%
Never, AGI kills all humans first
12%
2040 or later
The book can be *copy edited* by a human but no more than a book is usually copy edited.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will a book claimed to be written by an AI make the NYT best seller list before the end of 2025?
52% chance
Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?
24% chance
Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?
45% chance
Will any best-selling work of fiction be written entirely by an AI by April of 2028?
40% chance
Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?
75% chance
[Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?
46% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?
49% chance
Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?
70% chance
How long until AI can generate original pages of an "I Spy" style picture book?
2025
Will Sam Bankman-Fried author a book that will be an New York Times bestseller before 2075?
35% chance