Will the levelized cost of electricity from advanced nuclear be less than $60/MWh by 2030 (in the US)?
Basic
8
Ṁ133
2030
50%
chance

The EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2022 projectes the total system levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of new advanced nuclear to be $88/MWh in 2027 and $85/MWh in 2040 (excluding tax credits)

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation.pdf

The Energy Innovation Reform Project estimated that the future levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of its study participants' is significantly lower: average $60/MWh, with a range of $36–90/MWh

https://www.innovationreform.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Advanced-Nuclear-Reactors-Cost-Study.pdf

Resolves "Yes" if the EIA's Annual Energy Outlook (or equivalent reputable source) reports the current total system LCOE of advanced nuclear in the US to be less than $60/MWh [2021 dollars]

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