In 10 years, will the USA have an average cost of electricity below 1/10th of its current price?

1kṀ1256

2034

11%

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Right now the average price of energy in the USA is 16.1 c/kWh, so for this market to resolve "Yes", the cost of electricity would need to be below 1.61 c/kWh adjusted for inflation back to 2024 dollars.

Planning to use this site as the authority for resolution, provided it still exists in 10 years.

https://www.energybot.com/electricity-rates/

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bought Ṁ350 NO

Historical data here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU000072610 . Looks like historically the growth rate is much slower than 10x/10 years (the 2025 price is only 32% higher than the 2015 price)

Average Price: Electricity per Kilowatt-Hour in U.S. City Average

Graph and download economic data for Average Price: Electricity per Kilowatt-Hour in U.S. City Average (APU000072610) from Nov 1978 to Apr 2025 about electricity, energy, retail, price, and USA.

If machines can create significantly more value with the same unit of energy, then the cost of energy will likely go up. Unless energy supply grows equally or faster to meet the growth in demand

bought Ṁ30 NO

If the supply of money increases to match economic growth, then the inflation-adjusted cost of energy might go down. But all indicators seem to be pointing in the opposite direction this decade.

Economic growth is likely going to become bottlenecked by energy, which means higher inflation-adjusted energy prices.

The only way I see it going down in that time frame is massive buildout of power generation coupled with a devastating economic recession, which seems somewhat counterintuitive