Will GPT-5 be more competent than me in my area of expertise?
30
700
2025
42%
chance

Will replies to ten well-engineered GPT-5 prompts in my area of expertise outperform my own answers to them?

Example of what I mean by a well-engineered prompt:
"The following is an excerpt from the 'Guyton & Hall' authoritative textbook on human physiology. It describes the respective roles of RAAS, ANP, and ADH in controlling plasma osmolality and free water clearance through their effects on renal tubular transport."
Currently, I find ChatGPT's and GPT3's answers to questions of this complexity to sound convincing. However, when examined more closely they turn out to be factually wrong and inconsistent often enough to be useless.


Resolves N/A if there is nothing that can reasonably be called GPT5.
Resolution based on the best judgment of a friend of mine who has tech expertise yet enough understanding of biomed sciences to be able to competently judge. (I was convinced that I might be biased, so I changed this from me resolving it based on my own best judgment.)

Since I will base my future use of GPT for study purposes on its performance relative to myself, I am incentivized to judge as truthfully as possible.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

More competent as in "it's a more comprehensive knowledge database", or "it can reason and make new discoveries as well as me"?

related market

I would bet YES if it was being evaluated by a neutral third party, but I don't generally trust people to evaluate themselves against AI (no offense), even with some incentive to do so.

@vluzko Fair enough, do you think this would be better if I ask a friend of mine who has tech expertise yet enough understanding of biomed sciences to be able to competently judge?

@elibutchad I think that would be better, yes

@vluzko Alright, I will change the resolution criteria later today.

I wish I could bet "this will resolve N/A" without having to make a market myself

@L you do not think there will be a GPT-5 or you think that the resolution criteria are too murky? Help me improve this if it's the latter.

related (same question but for GPT4)