Which of these companies will outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?

Question

At EOY 2026, I will get S&P 500 YTD stock returns from yahoo finance. I will also get YTD company returns from the same source, (e.g.).  I believe both are adjusted for splits and dividends. A market resolves YES if the company outperforms the S&P and NO otherwise. I have added the top 50 companies in the S&P as of 2025-12-29. I am not planning to add any additional companies.

Note that I have added 2000 M limit orders at 40% and 60% for all options on the market. These expire before the open on Jan 2 2026.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Nvidia (NVDA), followed by Alphabet Class A (GOOGL) and Apple (AAPL) are most likely. See the market for live updates (32 traders, as of Apr 9, 2026).