RESOLUTION
The spirit of the market is to forecast a theory a number of people have made that goes something like this: Trump trade negotiation/tariff policy โ> Uncertain business environment โ> Cancellation of imports (especially via maritime trade) โ> Empty shelves for certain products within a few months after existing inventory is purchased โ> layoffs from affected businesses (usually by late June/July) due to decreased sales
Im open to different resolution criteria as long as its in the spirit of the market but Iโm currently considering resolving โYesโ if a number of non partisan economists agree that there were a significant spike in layoffs as a result of low inventories prior to September 1st 2025 (and they are able to back this up with objective metrics โ eg payroll data)
โEmpty shelvesโ should not be taken literally but rather as representative of significantly reduced availability or certain products for sale
Layoffs do not need to occur in all sectors of the economy, just in areas that are directly impacted by shortages (Retail, Ecommerce etc)
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