Technically: Will the U.S. Total Business Inventories/Sales Ratio, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau’s MTIS release for December 2025, fall below 1.30?

• Resolution criteria: Resolves based on the first official MTIS release of December 2025 data, usually published in February 2026.

• Fallback: If the series is discontinued, use the closest equivalent aggregate inventories/sales ratio from the Census Bureau or Federal Reserve.

• Why 1.30? That’s historically the approximate lower bound since the 1990s. Dropping below would clearly indicate “shortages” by long-term standards.