Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the DOJ formally opens an official investigation explicitly labeled as an "election integrity" investigation targeting a House or Senate midterm election before Jan 1, 2027. The investigation must be announced publicly by DOJ leadership or documented in official DOJ communications. Resolution is based on the DOJ's own characterization of the investigation as an "election integrity" effort.

For resolution purposes, see: DOJ Press Releases and DOJ Civil Rights Division announcements

Background

The Trump administration's DOJ has been seeking voter registration lists from multiple states ahead of the 2026 midterms, and has launched an unprecedented national campaign seeking unfettered access to voter records, suing election officials in 21 states plus Washington, D.C. U.S. Attorney Alina Habba announced the launch of a new federal Election Integrity Task Force based in Newark in August 2025. Elections are scheduled to be held in the United States on November 3, 2026, with all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate up for election.

Considerations

The distinction between DOJ's routine election monitoring activities and a formal "election integrity investigation" is important. Election monitoring is a longstanding and routine function of the DOJ, traditionally in places where voting rights or civil rights violations have been alleged. This market specifically requires an investigation formally labeled as an "election integrity" investigation, not general monitoring or data requests.