Will William MacAskill ever win the Nobel Peace Prize?
29
1kαΉ24912087
4%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_MacAskill
Sep 21, 9:43pm: Resolves no if he dies without the Nobel Peace Prize.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
@TomShlomi I put the close date to when he is 100, if he dies before then it resolves no. Any suggestions of how to improve this kind of question?
@jorge Seems like a good resolution criteria, I'd just recommend making it explicit in the market description
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
5% chance
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
Will Peter Singer ever win the Nobel Peace Prize?
3% chance
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize?
4% chance
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
1% chance
Will GiveWell win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2040?
10% chance
Will Taylor Swift ever win a Nobel Prize?
9% chance
Will Haruki Murakami ever win the Nobel Prize for Literature?
28% chance
Will Ed Boyden win a Nobel Prize any time in the future?
18% chance
ποΈWhich person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?