Will Haruki Murakami ever win the Nobel Prize for Literature?
19
Ṁ1kṀ4142049
27%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Haruki Murakami is a world-renowned Japanese author who has been translated into many different languages and published several novels and works of nonfiction to widespread popular and critical acclaim. Despite constant speculation from Nobel watchers around the globe, at a current 74 years of age he has never won the Prize for Literature. Will he ever win it? Let's take a guess...
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will Alan Moore ever win the Nobel Prize for Literature?
12% chance
Will the 2026 Nobel Prize for Literature recipient be a woman?
50% chance
What will be true about the next person to win the Nobel Prize for Literature in 2026?
Will George R. R. Martin ever win the Hugo Award for Best Novel?
9% chance
Will William MacAskill ever win the Nobel Peace Prize?
3% chance
Will a comic book person win the nobel prize for literature before 2043?
50% chance
When will Mircea Cărtărescu win a Nobel Prize in Literature (2025-2030)?
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky ever win a Nobel Prize?
4% chance
Will Kwon Young-Wan win a Nobel Prize?
3% chance
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize?
3% chance