Resolves YES if the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) does not permit Biden's student loan forgiveness program to proceed and the current forbearance on student loan payments ends before or on September 1, 2023.
Notice that if the law that delays payments ends before or on September 1st, and interest starts accruing, the second condition above (forbearance ends) will be considered true even if the deadline for the first payment is after September 1st.
Resolves N/A if SCOTUS permits Biden's student loan forgiveness program to proceed and also if SCOTUS does not have a decision by September 1.
Context: https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/loans/it-could-be-months-before-borrowers-find-out-when-student-loan-payments-will-resume/
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Fist condition for this question is met (https://www.npr.org/live-updates/supreme-court-student-loan-forgiveness) so this is now the same as:
Forbearance on interest will cease on 2023-9-1, and loan payments will be forced to resume on 2023-10-1. I will note that the forbearance on payments specifically does not end by September 1st.
@Lorxus my read from that article is that forbearance ends on Sep 1st even if the first payment is due on Oct 1st. I updated the description to reflect that. Sorry, I should have been more clear on the description.
I'm showcasing this market because financial decisions on how to invest money for people with loans depends on whether payments will resume. I also think that payments resuming depends heavily on whether the student loan forgiveness is allowed to proceed and would like to have probabilities dependent on that event.