Resolves YES the current forbearance on student loan payments ends before or on September 1, 2023.
Context: "Payments and interest were suspended in March 2020 at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, the restart date has been pushed back eight times by two administrations" https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/loans/it-could-be-months-before-borrowers-find-out-when-student-loan-payments-will-resume/
@jack Let it never be said you don't put your marbles where your mouth is.
I feel really rather strongly that whoever's still in on YES is sorely underestimating the banal null-action cruelty that marks the US government's current evident SOP in whatever their pricing is.
I'm showcasing this market because financial decisions on how to invest money for people with loans depends on whether payments will resume. I also think that payments resuming depends heavily on whether the student loan forgiveness is allowed to proceed and would like to have probabilities dependent on that event.
@egroj I'm a little surprised that this is as high as it is, given the attached market and a quick EV calculation.
@egroj like, 80 × 0.3 + 32 × 0.7 = 24 + 22ish = 46, right?
@Lorxus yes, even at 100% for payments resuming if loan forgiveness goes forward, and even if you assume 50% chance of payments not resuming if loan forgiveness is cancelled, the max that this could be is 65%. So either that 30% for SCOTUS allowing forgiveness is too low, or this market is overpriced
@egroj well, I chucked in 200ish marbles about it, so there we are.
@Lorxus the resolution conditions for those markets allow them to both resolve N/A if there's no court decision by Sep 1, which your calculation does not capture. (this seems to imply that the market gives a fairly high probability of no court decision and payments resuming, which seems strange to me and I did put in some mana to push it the other way.)
@jcb you're right that I don't take that into account explicitly but I think p(that) << 20 tap-dancing percent.
I'm even near-certain that it's < 1/16! Biden and the DNC don't have the guts and the GOP will never let them just do that without some kind of fight.
@jcb I would also think that if there is no resolution by Sep 1, the probability of student loans resuming would be very similar (if not lower) that that probability given that SCOTUS does not allow forgiveness to happen, and thus your consideration would make the overall probability of this market even lower