Will student loan payments resume by Sep 1st?
resolved Sep 1

Resolves YES the current forbearance on student loan payments ends before or on September 1, 2023.

Notice that if the law that delays payments ends before or on September 1st, and interest starts accruing this market will resolve YES even if the deadline for the first payment is after September 1st.

Context: "Payments and interest were suspended in March 2020 at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, the restart date has been pushed back eight times by two administrations" https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/loans/it-could-be-months-before-borrowers-find-out-when-student-loan-payments-will-resume/

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predicted NO

kill me

predicted NO

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Forbearance on interest will cease on 2023-9-1, and loan payments will be forced to resume on 2023-10-1. I will note that the forbearance on payments specifically does not end by September 1st.


@Lorxus my read from the article is that forbearance on payments will end Sep 1st, when interest starts accruing even when the first payment deadline is Oct 1st. But I'm open to hearing other people's opinions...

predicted NO

@egroj "Payments and interest" were identified as distinct concepts in the context, and the title and resolution refer to payments specifically. So merely accruing interest shouldn't be enough, if there aren't any payments required.

predicted YES

I agree that the wording of the market doesn't make it super clear, but from the perspective of the law they seem to count this as the forbearance of payments and interest ending by Sep 1.

“Sixty days after June 30, 2023,” the law says, the suspension of student loan payments and interest “shall cease to be effective.”

Did anyone bet on the interpretation about when the first payment is due, other than Mira right after the above comment was posted?

predicted YES

The question refers to "forbearance" on payments. If the forbearance ends but payments are due one billing cycle later, that seems like it still counts.

Compare the question text:

Resolves YES the current forbearance on student loan payments ends before or on September 1, 2023.

To the law:

“Sixty days after June 30, 2023,” the law says, the suspension of student loan payments and interest “shall cease to be effective.”

@jack that is my read too. I'll try to make it clearer in the description


@jack Let it never be said you don't put your marbles where your mouth is.

I feel really rather strongly that whoever's still in on YES is sorely underestimating the banal null-action cruelty that marks the US government's current evident SOP in whatever their pricing is.

I'm showcasing this market because financial decisions on how to invest money for people with loans depends on whether payments will resume. I also think that payments resuming depends heavily on whether the student loan forgiveness is allowed to proceed and would like to have probabilities dependent on that event.

predicted YES


@egroj I'm a little surprised that this is as high as it is, given the attached market and a quick EV calculation.

predicted NO

@egroj like, 80 × 0.3 + 32 × 0.7 = 24 + 22ish = 46, right?

@Lorxus yes, even at 100% for payments resuming if loan forgiveness goes forward, and even if you assume 50% chance of payments not resuming if loan forgiveness is cancelled, the max that this could be is 65%. So either that 30% for SCOTUS allowing forgiveness is too low, or this market is overpriced

@egroj well, I chucked in 200ish marbles about it, so there we are.

predicted NO

@Lorxus the resolution conditions for those markets allow them to both resolve N/A if there's no court decision by Sep 1, which your calculation does not capture. (this seems to imply that the market gives a fairly high probability of no court decision and payments resuming, which seems strange to me and I did put in some mana to push it the other way.)

predicted NO

@jcb you're right that I don't take that into account explicitly but I think p(that) << 20 tap-dancing percent.

predicted NO

I'm even near-certain that it's < 1/16! Biden and the DNC don't have the guts and the GOP will never let them just do that without some kind of fight.

@jcb I would also think that if there is no resolution by Sep 1, the probability of student loans resuming would be very similar (if not lower) that that probability given that SCOTUS does not allow forgiveness to happen, and thus your consideration would make the overall probability of this market even lower

predicted NO

@egroj yeah that what I would have expected! 🤷

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