⚠️ I reserve the right to flesh out this question with more edge cases, etc. as they are mentioned until 2024-09-01 0:00 UTC. By all means mention them in the comments!

Per https://www.ed.gov/save:

On July 18, 2024, a federal court issued a stay preventing the Department from operating the Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) plan. Here’s what it means for borrowers:

• Forbearance: Borrowers enrolled in the SAVE plan are being moved into forbearance. During forbearance, SAVE borrowers will not have to make payments. The time in forbearance will not count toward Public Service Loan Forgiveness or Income-Driven Repayment (IDR) loan forgiveness. SAVE borrowers will not accrue interest on their loans during the forbearance. SAVE borrowers will be notified about their forbearance by their loan servicers.

• Bills and payments: Borrowers enrolled in the SAVE Plan who have received a bill for August are being put in an interest-free forbearance – payments are not required during forbearance. Borrowers enrolled in the SAVE Plan who have not yet received a bill for August will also be put in forbearance and therefore will not receive a bill.

Borrowers affected by this court decision will hear from their loan servicers and/or the Department in the coming days. The Department will continue to update this page and pages on StudentAid.gov and what it means for borrowers.

The Biden-Harris Administration will continue to aggressively defend the SAVE Plan in court and continue to pursue all available tools to reduce the burden of student loans on borrowers across the country.

This throws the continued existence of the SAVE plan, which has previously been characterized by NPR's Planet Money as "student loan forgiveness in disguise", into jeopardy. But it is unclear just how much jeopardy. Hence this market.

This market will resolve YES if, by 2024-01-01 0:00 UTC, the SAVE plan is announced by the federal govenrment to be cancelled outright. Otherwise it will resolve NO.

Edge cases

• A continued stay, or continued forbearance do not count for this criteria.

• A SAVE plan which grandfathers in existing SAVE plans does not count for a YES. The plan must be summarily cancelled, even for current holders.

• "Latest announcement only" rules. If two separate announcements come out, one of the "it's so over" phenotype and one of the "it's so back", in that chronological order, we default to "it's so back". And vice versa.

• Your edge case here! Please mention it in the comments.

I will not bet in this market.

I have no special expertise in US federal loans.