Resolves YES if Manifold Markets has a Wikipedia page before September 23.
EDIT: To be more specific these are the criteria that I will use (thanks to
@XComhghall for suggestions):
Draft, articles for deletion and redirects do not count as a 'Wikipedia page' in this market.
If the article goes through the guided draft and review process, and it gets approved, I will resolve the market YES if the page is still there after a week (has to be approved before September 23).
If the article goes through the guided draft and review process, it gets approved before September 23, but someone flags it for deletion within a week of it getting approved, I will wait until the Wikipedia admins decide to delete (resolving NO) or accept the article (YES), independently of how much time it takes for the admins to arrive at a conclusion.
If someone makes a non-draft page, then I would only resolve YES, after someone else (I can do it if you notify me that the page is up) nominates the article for deletion, and the Wikipedia admins accept the page BEFORE September 23.
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The article exists and has been nominated for deletion: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manifold_Markets. So if an admin accepts it now, this market should resolve YES.
@XComhghall do you know how to nominate the article for deletion? I haven't been able to find that out. I think it is almost certain that the page won't be accepted because it doesn't have notable mentions
@NiallWeaver thanks! I'll try to do it tomorrow, I'm not very experienced so will have to read how to do it. If someone else wants to go through the nomination for deletion, please do so.
@egroj Don't bother if you're not experienced. It's a bad idea, as I'm sure many here agree. I get your reasoning, but figure something else out.
The current template signifies that the article is ", in [the editor's] judgment, reasonably likely to be non-notable (not the sort of subject that Wikipedia ought to have a separate article about). When an article is certainly, hopelessly non-notable, then [it should be nominated] for proposed deletion or [taken] to Articles for deletion instead." This article as it stands does not meet the definition of "certainly, hopelessly non-notable", so it shouldn't be nominated for deletion at this time.
@brubsby it was done without going through the draft process, for resolution of this market it needs to go through an admin evaluating the page, which can be done by nominating the article for deletion.
@egroj The link that Niall Weaver provided is correct. Under the section Current discussions, click 'Add a new entry' to nominate the page for deletion.
I tend to disagree with ianminds. An article is not 'kept until proven non-notable'. An article should not be created, and should be deleted, unless it meets Wikipedia's notability guideline — unless it is certainly notable.
@egroj Just to clarify, does this resolve NO if the current article gets deleted regardless of whether another article is created later?
@something612 if another article is created later, it goes through the admin process (or the criteria in the description) and gets accepted before September 23, the market would resolve YES.
@egroj OK, I added it to the Articles for deletion. I will notify if I'm informed about a decision.
@awse this one feels manipulatable… but i trust the page to be truly relevant in 3+ months
Vox can be cited now, see https://manifold.markets/ianminds/will-manifold-markets-be-mentioned-2093146b0ce9#UtNjQmkYm6huRpSz5xvs
@ianminds A link with no textual mention will probably be classified as a “passing mention” (if that, even) and imo is unlikely to be considered sufficient for notability.
@JimHays By the way, I want out of this market due to the absolute bonkers fourth bullet point. What, AfD, I want to propose this article for deletion because I'm running a betting market and ... ???
@ianminds There's other ways to go forward if someone creates a non-draft page without abusing Wikipedia processes (and awakening a random deletionist), like waiting an extra n months to see if it stays up. To be clear, I'm not saying the time is ripe for an article right now.
@ianminds the fourth bullet is to avoid the problem of publishing an article without the guided draft process. Notice that it only applies to that process, not if someone creates the article the recommended way, through a draft and supervision by wikipedia editors. Anyone can build a wikipedia page without supervision, but most of them get deleted almost immediately. The fourth bullet is a way to avoid someone creating a page last minute to game the market. The idea of the market is that of a real wikipedia page, so going through the process of proposing a non-draft article for deletion is a way to ensure that the article will stay in wikipedia.
You can read more discussion about the criteria resolution here: https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-manifold-markets-have-a-wikipe-632cdf1b4286
