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Wait, 'not in the articles for deletion'. So if there emerges a Manifold article, I could just nominate it in AfD, and this would resolve NO? (Tbf, I do wonder whether Manifold meets Wikipedia's notability guideline.)

@XComhghall it's pretty much a safeguard so that someone doesn't just do a draft on June 20 that will be deleted. But I guess it has to pass draft first. If the article appears for a week, I'll resolve as YES even if it gets deleted afterwards.

@egroj But you also said, 'not in the articles for deletion'. AfD discussions last at least 7 days. All articles, including AfD, will remain for a week before being deleted.

Anyone could post a stub article that does not meet Wikipedia's standards. To delete it (AfD), it takes at least 7 days.

@egroj Nothing as of market close.

@XComhghall when I have tried to do an article you have to go through a draft first, and then some editor has to see if the draft gets approved. Do you think that it would be enough just to say 'non-draft' in the description and remove the part of articles for deletion? Or do you have any other suggestion to improve the resolution? (I have other similar markets)

@egroj

The draft and review process is completely optional. Anyone can create an actual page without draft or review by following the help page Wikipedia: How to create a page and relevant policies and guidelines - though creating a draft, either on the Draft: name space or your userpage's subpage, is recommended.

In a sense, the guided draft and review process is an alternative to following 'Wikipedia: How to create a page' (quoted below), aimed to help new editors:

For a guided process to create an article (and for which these technical instructions will not be needed), see the article wizard and Wikipedia:Articles for creation, where a proposed article will first be created as a draft and then submitted for review before possible "publication" by a move to the article mainspace.

@egroj Outline of the series of events related to creating / deleting a new page:

• Draft (Optional but recommended)

• Guided draft and review process (Optional)

• Creating an article in the main namespace

• A new page patroller (and non-patroller patrolling new pages) may review the newly created article. They may send it to AfD for discussion (which lasts at least 7 days), or if it should obviously be deleted and meet certain criteria, request speedy deletion (typically within a day).

• Other editors may spot the new page in a few days or weeks, and send it to AfD for discussion or request speedy deletion.

A few problems:

Anyone can create a non-draft page without going through the guided draft and review process (which typically takes 7 days if anyone, including admins and bureaucrats, wants to delete it, even if it actually should be deleted).

Anyone can nominate a page for AfD, which, whether passed or not, typically takes at least 7 days.

There is a fair chance that a page is either not patrolled, or not thoroughly patrolled and let go even though it is problematic. I am not sure how it is on EN Wikipedia, but I am a patroller on ZH Wikipedia. With thousands of pages (non-drafts) created each day, a lot of new pages are not patrolled. Even if a page is patrolled, the patroller may not have enough time to thoroughly review it.

To delete a page, in most cases, it has to go through AfD discussion, which takes at least 7 days. Speedy deletion only applies to a small, defined set of circumstances. For AfD discussions to be concluded before 7 days, there are likewise a small, defined set of circumstances.

Suggestion:

If you post a question on Manifold asking whether there will be a Wikipedia page about something, this likely solves the problem of the new page not being patrolled / thoroughly patrolled. Considering Wikipedia's deletion process, I suggest the following:

• An article is not nominated for deletion (AfD) or speedy deletion (nominated within 7 days of article creation, or a different time frame you may choose) - YES

• An article is nominated for deletion (AfD) or speedy deletion

  • AfD discussion concluded deletion, and the page is deleted - NO

  • Admin approved speedy deletion, and the page is speedily deleted - NO

  • If AfD discussion / admin concluded otherwise, and the page is not deleted - YES

Also, AfD discussions could have conclusions other than keep or delete, e.g., merge or redirect, which ends up with the page (redirect page) still there, but redirecting to a different page, with the redirect page having no content of itself.

E.g., redirect page is 'Manifold Markets', redirects to 'Prediction market'. Even though 'Manifold Markets' has no content, and merely redirects to 'Prediction market', 'Prediction market' may or may not have content about 'Manifold Markets' - It does if 'Manifold Markets' is merged to 'Prediction market', and does not if it was a simple redirect without merger.

You might also want to consider how you'd count a redirect page - and the two scenarios of merger / no merger.

@XComhghall wow thanks! I'll update the description on these two markets using your input:

Since I cannot tip you directly, I bet on all your markets so that you get the bonuses.