Will an mRNA RSV vaccine be available by the end of 2025?

Recent interview with Moderna's CEO:

"As you were saying, part of this is forward-looking because you have this platform technology [mRNA] that you feel is going to produce more vaccines. What’s next?

Flu is the next one. It could be as early as 2023. And on RSV [respiratory syncytial virus], there’s been some interesting news in the field because the world has needed an RSV vaccine for decades."


I will resolve "Yes" if any RSV mRNA vaccine is approved or given an emergency use authorization by the FDA, and it is available for the general public, for a specific age-group (e.g. 65 years or older) or for a group with certain health conditions (e.g. moderately or severely immunocompromised).

Oct 27, 10:30am: Will an mRNA RSV vaccine be available by 2025? → Will an mRNA RSV vaccine be available by the end of 2025?

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"Moderna Reports RSV Vaccine Cuts Risk of Respiratory Diseases in Older Adults [...] Citing the results, the Cambridge, Mass., company said Tuesday it would apply in the coming months for U.S. regulatory approval to sell its vaccine against RSV, which stands for respiratory syncytial virus. If regulators approve the vaccine, it could become available by early 2024, the company said."

"by 2025", but close in 1st Jan 2026?

@jorge Can you please clarify when is the latest date for availability that will resolve to YES?

@EugenGrue At Metaculus "by :date:" means "before :date:"

@EugenGrue @jorge Nevermind. Browsing some questions here, it's obvious that here it means before end of instead of before start of.

predicts YES

@EugenGrue thanks! I tried to state it better in the title