What countries will make it to the 2022 FIFA World Cup knockout stage?
72
113
10k
resolved Dec 2
7%9%
Brazil
7%9%
Portugal
7%9%
Netherlands
7%8%
France
7%6%
Spain
7%6%
England
7%5%
Morocco
7%4%
Croatia
7%4%
Poland
7%4%
Argentina
7%4%
Switzerland
7%3%
United States
7%1.7%
Senegal
7%1.7%
Australia
7%1.0%
Japan
0.2%Other
0.2%
Qatar
3%
Iran
0.2%
Wales
1.0%
Saudi Arabia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_knockout_stage

I will select as answers all the countries that make it to the Round of 16, independently of them placing first or second in their group.

Betting closes before the start of the final games of the group stage.

Notice that I will be selecting 16 teams as answers assigning 6.25% probability to each team. So you have to multiply probabilities here by 16 (6.25% means 100%) and divide possible profits by 16.

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Where did South Korea go

@Trong that was 100 mana i lost

@Trong do you know how many shares you had? Or where in the 22 pages of trades yours was?

@egroj 390 shares

it seems like everyone sold South Korea, so I had to choose only 15 answers, not 16, and you got a little bit more than expected for each correct bet

@egroj The underdogs will win it all

@egroj is weird that South Korea has positive percentage, the page didn't allow me to choose more than 15. I will tip you the money that you were supposed to make if you had South Korea shares (dividing the result by 16 and rounding up). Let me know if you had South Korea shares.

@egroj I reported a possible bug regarding this. It shouldn't matter for the next market that only will have 8 answers selected. That market closes tomorrow morning BTW:

@egroj I had 43 South Korea shares. But no worries if it’s a bug which you reported and it’s no fault of yours.

@bobzieh that would be M$3, I can make a mana link for you if you contact me on discord (user egroj)

This can resolve

@Yev I'm wondering how this works

sold Ṁ18 of N/A

Whoever is bidding Brazil up to 12% is going to lose money, if I understand correctly, because it's going to pay out at 6.25%.

bought Ṁ50 of N/A

@KevinBurke you are correct.

bought Ṁ8 of N/A

Just before the start of the world cup these are the translated probabilities for this market and how they compare with those of FiveThirtyEight (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-world-cup-predictions/):

@egroj if you want to bet on whether this market will do better than FiveThirtyEight, check this:

bought Ṁ5 of N/A

Actually this one's much harder to beat

@ShakedKoplewitz yes, other than the place of South Korea (due to a single bet), I think that this market is pretty accurate on the top 16. I'm curious to see how it will perform compared to 538's complicated model...

New market about whether this market will perform better than FiveThirtyEight:

Related:

The payouts don’t make any sense. Are you sure that you can select more than one winner for this type of question?

@bobzieh yes, when you resolve a market you can "Choose multiple" and then assign percentages to each answer selected. In this case each team that qualifies will be assigned 6.25%.

You have to multiply the payouts accordingly.

In fact here, 6.25% translates to 100% probability, so betting for Brazil (right now at 9%) does not make much sense.

@bobzieh When a market is created there is no option to tell Manifold Markets that more than one answer will be chosen, therefore Manifold Markets does not adjust the probabilites and the payouts. 16 Countries will reach the knockout stage, to get the real payout you have to divide the shown payout by 16 and for the real probabilites you have to multiply the probabilites by 16. 6,25% * 16 = 100%

bought Ṁ27 of N/A

@bobzieh This should definitely be added to the question description I think :)

@HenriThunberg you are right, I added it to the description, it seems like people are still confused by this question and keep betting on teams that are over 6.25%. Unless they like this market quite a lot and want to subsidize it 😂 When I made the question I thought that just saying that I was going to select 16 teams equally was enough, lesson learnt for next time.

I'll also change the description of these too: