What countries will make it to the 2022 FIFA World Cup knockout stage?
Resolved
MANY

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_knockout_stage

I will select as answers all the countries that make it to the Round of 16, independently of them placing first or second in their group.

Betting closes before the start of the final games of the group stage.

Notice that I will be selecting 16 teams as answers assigning 6.25% probability to each team. So you have to multiply probabilities here by 16 (6.25% means 100%) and divide possible profits by 16.

Chosen 7%
1.7%
Chosen 7%
1.0%
Chosen 7%
5%
Chosen 7%
1.7%
Chosen 7%
4%
Chosen 7%
4%
Chosen 7%
3%
Chosen 7%
4%
Chosen 7%
9%
Chosen 7%
6%
Chosen 7%
4%
Chosen 7%
8%
Chosen 7%
6%
Chosen 7%
10%
Chosen 7%
9%
JorgeAAlfaroMurillo avatarGermany
5%
JorgeAAlfaroMurillo avatarEcuador
4%
JorgeAAlfaroMurillo avatarIran
3%
JorgeAAlfaroMurillo avatarUruguay
3%
JorgeAAlfaroMurillo avatarDenmark
2%
JorgeAAlfaroMurillo avatarGhana
1.6%
JorgeAAlfaroMurillo avatarBelgium
1.4%

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Chocobo
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Trong avatar

Where did South Korea go

Trong avatar

@Trong that was 100 mana i lost

egroj avatar

@Trong do you know how many shares you had? Or where in the 22 pages of trades yours was?

Trong avatar

@egroj 390 shares

egroj avatar

it seems like everyone sold South Korea, so I had to choose only 15 answers, not 16, and you got a little bit more than expected for each correct bet

Simon805b avatar

@egroj The underdogs will win it all

egroj avatar

@egroj is weird that South Korea has positive percentage, the page didn't allow me to choose more than 15. I will tip you the money that you were supposed to make if you had South Korea shares (dividing the result by 16 and rounding up). Let me know if you had South Korea shares.

egroj avatar

@egroj I reported a possible bug regarding this. It shouldn't matter for the next market that only will have 8 answers selected. That market closes tomorrow morning BTW:

bobzieh avatar

@egroj I had 43 South Korea shares. But no worries if it’s a bug which you reported and it’s no fault of yours.

egroj avatar

@bobzieh that would be M$3, I can make a mana link for you if you contact me on discord (user egroj)

Yev avatar

This can resolve

Simon805b avatar

@Yev I'm wondering how this works

KevinBurke avatar
Kevin Burke
sold Ṁ18

Whoever is bidding Brazil up to 12% is going to lose money, if I understand correctly, because it's going to pay out at 6.25%.

egroj avatar
JAAM
bought Ṁ50

@KevinBurke you are correct.

egroj avatar
JAAM
bought Ṁ8

Just before the start of the world cup these are the translated probabilities for this market and how they compare with those of FiveThirtyEight (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-world-cup-predictions/):

egroj avatar

@egroj if you want to bet on whether this market will do better than FiveThirtyEight, check this:

TiannaWheeler avatar
ShakedKoplewitz avatar
Shaked Koplewitz
bought Ṁ5

Actually this one's much harder to beat

egroj avatar

@ShakedKoplewitz yes, other than the place of South Korea (due to a single bet), I think that this market is pretty accurate on the top 16. I'm curious to see how it will perform compared to 538's complicated model...

egroj avatar

New market about whether this market will perform better than FiveThirtyEight:

egroj avatar

Related:

bobzieh avatar

The payouts don’t make any sense. Are you sure that you can select more than one winner for this type of question?

egroj avatar

@bobzieh yes, when you resolve a market you can "Choose multiple" and then assign percentages to each answer selected. In this case each team that qualifies will be assigned 6.25%.

You have to multiply the payouts accordingly.

In fact here, 6.25% translates to 100% probability, so betting for Brazil (right now at 9%) does not make much sense.

Chocobo avatar

@bobzieh When a market is created there is no option to tell Manifold Markets that more than one answer will be chosen, therefore Manifold Markets does not adjust the probabilites and the payouts. 16 Countries will reach the knockout stage, to get the real payout you have to divide the shown payout by 16 and for the real probabilites you have to multiply the probabilites by 16. 6,25% * 16 = 100%

HenriThunberg avatar
Henri Thunberg
bought Ṁ27

@bobzieh This should definitely be added to the question description I think :)

egroj avatar

@HenriThunberg you are right, I added it to the description, it seems like people are still confused by this question and keep betting on teams that are over 6.25%. Unless they like this market quite a lot and want to subsidize it 😂 When I made the question I thought that just saying that I was going to select 16 teams equally was enough, lesson learnt for next time.

I'll also change the description of these too: