I will select as answers all the countries that make it to the Round of 16, independently of them placing first or second in their group.
Betting closes before the start of the final games of the group stage.
Notice that I will be selecting 16 teams as answers assigning 6.25% probability to each team. So you have to multiply probabilities here by 16 (6.25% means 100%) and divide possible profits by 16.
🏅 Top traders
Where did South Korea go
it seems like everyone sold South Korea, so I had to choose only 15 answers, not 16, and you got a little bit more than expected for each correct bet
Whoever is bidding Brazil up to 12% is going to lose money, if I understand correctly, because it's going to pay out at 6.25%.
Just before the start of the world cup these are the translated probabilities for this market and how they compare with those of FiveThirtyEight (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-world-cup-predictions/):
Actually this one's much harder to beat
The payouts don’t make any sense. Are you sure that you can select more than one winner for this type of question?
@bobzieh yes, when you resolve a market you can "Choose multiple" and then assign percentages to each answer selected. In this case each team that qualifies will be assigned 6.25%.
You have to multiply the payouts accordingly.
In fact here, 6.25% translates to 100% probability, so betting for Brazil (right now at 9%) does not make much sense.
@bobzieh When a market is created there is no option to tell Manifold Markets that more than one answer will be chosen, therefore Manifold Markets does not adjust the probabilites and the payouts. 16 Countries will reach the knockout stage, to get the real payout you have to divide the shown payout by 16 and for the real probabilites you have to multiply the probabilites by 16. 6,25% * 16 = 100%
@HenriThunberg you are right, I added it to the description, it seems like people are still confused by this question and keep betting on teams that are over 6.25%. Unless they like this market quite a lot and want to subsidize it 😂 When I made the question I thought that just saying that I was going to select 16 teams equally was enough, lesson learnt for next time.
I'll also change the description of these too: