This market resolves YES if the Brier score for the predictions of the manifold market below is lower (lower is better) than that for the FiveThirtyEight 2022 World Cup Predictions: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-world-cup-predictions/

I will compare the predictions before the start of the World Cup (November 20).

By the nature of the manifold market (multiple choice with 16 answers resolved with equal percentage) I will multiply all probabilities in the market by 16. I will assume that any probability larger than 6.25% percent in the manifold market is equal to 1.

Since I will be calculating the scores, I won't bet on the market after I gather the data (November 20). The market resolves at the end of the group stage when all teams for the Round of 16 are determined.

Brier score: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score

Manifold market to compare: