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https://manifold.markets/FernandoIrarrazaval/will-chelsea-sign-moises-caicedo-be

Will Chelsea sign Moises Caicedo before the transfer deadline?

59% chance. Will Chelsea sign Moises Caicedo during this transfer window? (2023 summer transfer window). Any official confirmation from Brighton or Chelsea resolves this as YES (for example a Twitter announcement from one of their accounts).

haha people totally overcommitted to Argentina winning

@Jelle I would not call it an overcommitment! unlikely things happen but that does not make them likely.

@Adam Nope that's not why I meant. This market stayed in favor of Argentina for a long time, probably because people invested in Argentina and weren't able to sell, not having enough liquidity to shift the distribution.

@Jelle oh, you mean the way it took a while for the odds to shift after the goals? yeah, I unwound a 5k position on argentina and got most of it back in on France at great odds, myself

@Adam (this was across 3 markets)

@Adam Nvm, I see people have been selling by voting opposite on this market too. Not sure why there isn't a sell button for these kinds of markets?

Another arbitrage market:

Related:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-world-cup-predictions/