Will a single manifold market beat the FiveThirtyEight World Cup Predictions for which teams make it to the round of 16?

Question

This market resolves YES if the Brier score for the predictions of the manifold market below is lower (lower is better) than that for the FiveThirtyEight 2022 World Cup Predictions: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-world-cup-predictions/

I will compare the predictions before the start of the World Cup (November 20).

By the nature of the manifold market (multiple choice with 16 answers resolved with equal percentage) I will multiply all probabilities in the market by 16. I will assume that any probability larger than 6.25% percent in the manifold market is equal to 1.

Since I will be calculating the scores, I won't bet on the market after I gather the data (November 20). The market resolves at the end of the group stage when all teams for the Round of 16 are determined.

Brier score: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score

Manifold market to compare:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/egroj/what-countries-will-make-it-to-the)

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Dec 2, 2022 by Manifold Markets prediction market.