https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_knockout_stage
I will resolve as answers the eight countries that make it to the Quarter-finals.
Betting closes before the start of the Round of 16.
Notice that I will be selecting 8 teams as answers assigning 12.5% probability to each team. So you have to multiply probabilities here by 8 (12.5% means 100%) and divide possible profits by 8.
1,000
3.00538 odds here. Bought some to balance things out to match them - Brazil is still too high (currently it has implied odds of over 200% to make it) but there's no direct way to short it without just buying everyone else. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-world-cup-predictions/
@egroj Alright, left some subsidy in there but it's broadly reasonable now. Too lazy to keep messing until it's exactly right.
@NekoHime and everyone else, be aware that this market will resolve to 8 answers, so a probability of 12.5% is equivalent to 100%, and you should divide all possible payments by 8