What countries will make it to the 2022 FIFA World Cup Quarter-finals?
Resolved
MANY

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_knockout_stage

I will resolve as answers the eight countries that make it to the Quarter-finals.

Betting closes before the start of the Round of 16.

Notice that I will be selecting 8 teams as answers assigning 12.5% probability to each team. So you have to multiply probabilities here by 8 (12.5% means 100%) and divide possible profits by 8.

Chosen 13%
7%
Chosen 13%
10%
Chosen 13%
10%
Chosen 13%
8%
Chosen 13%
9%
Chosen 13%
8%
Croatia
Chosen 13%
6%
Chosen 13%
3%
jorge avatarSpain
8%
Nier avatarJapan
6%
jorge avatarUnited States
4%
Nier avatarSwitzerland
4%
Nier avatarSenegal
3%
Chocobo avatarPoland
2%
Nier avatarAustralia
2%
Nier avatarSouth Korea
2.0%
jorge avatarGermany
1.5%
jorge avatarBelgium
1.2%
jorge avatarDenmark
1.0%

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egroj avatar

Betting for semi-finals closes before the start of the first quarter-final game (this Friday):

DesTiny avatar

Ez Ṁ1 profit

DesTiny avatar

Guys, I'm terrible at predicting the outcome of a game

DesTiny avatar

@DesTiny I'm like 2-5

DesTiny avatar
DesTiny
bought Ṁ10

I'm ready for the US to absolutely SLAP the Netherlands

Simon1551 avatar

@DesTiny this is aging amazingly

DesTiny avatar
DesTiny
bought Ṁ10

@Simon805b Shut up

TiannaWheeler avatar
egroj avatar

Related:

ShakedKoplewitz avatar
Shaked Koplewitz
bought Ṁ10

@egroj uwu free money

egroj avatar
ShakedKoplewitz avatar
Shaked Koplewitz
bought Ṁ100

538 odds here. Bought some to balance things out to match them - Brazil is still too high (currently it has implied odds of over 200% to make it) but there's no direct way to short it without just buying everyone else. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-world-cup-predictions/

egroj avatar

@ShakedKoplewitz yes, currently it is like a subsidy for the market

ShakedKoplewitz avatar
Shaked Koplewitz
bought Ṁ30

@egroj Alright, left some subsidy in there but it's broadly reasonable now. Too lazy to keep messing until it's exactly right.

egroj avatar

@NekoHime and everyone else, be aware that this market will resolve to 8 answers, so a probability of 12.5% is equivalent to 100%, and you should divide all possible payments by 8