resolved Dec 6

2022 FIFA World Cup Sports

What countries will make it to the 2022 FIFA World Cup Quarter-finals?

Resolved

MANY

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_knockout_stage

I will resolve as answers the eight countries that make it to the Quarter-finals.

Betting closes before the start of the Round of 16.

Notice that I will be selecting 8 teams as answers assigning 12.5% probability to each team. So you have to multiply probabilities here by 8 (12.5% means 100%) and divide possible profits by 8.

Netherlands

Jorge A. Alfaro Murillo

Chosen 13%

7%

Argentina

Jorge A. Alfaro Murillo

Chosen 13%

10%

Brazil

Jorge A. Alfaro Murillo

Chosen 13%

10%

England

Jorge A. Alfaro Murillo

Chosen 13%

8%

France

Jorge A. Alfaro Murillo

Chosen 13%

9%

Portugal

Jorge A. Alfaro Murillo

Chosen 13%

8%

Croatia

Chosen 13%

6%

Morocco

Chosen 13%

3%

Spain

8%

Japan

6%

United States

4%

Switzerland

4%

Senegal

3%

Poland

2%

Australia

2%

South Korea

2.0%

Germany

1.5%

Belgium

1.2%

Denmark

1.0%

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1	Chocobo	Ṁ416
2	Robi Rahman	Ṁ353
3	Big Soulja	Ṁ291
4	Rdoc	Ṁ232
5	JAAM	Ṁ191

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Betting for semi-finals closes before the start of the first quarter-final game (this Friday):

Ez Ṁ1 profit

Guys, I'm terrible at predicting the outcome of a game

@DesTiny I'm like 2-5

bought Ṁ10

I'm ready for the US to absolutely SLAP the Netherlands

@DesTiny this is aging amazingly

bought Ṁ10

@Simon805b Shut up

Related:

Shaked Koplewitz

bought Ṁ10

@egroj uwu free money

@ShakedKoplewitz lol

Shaked Koplewitz

bought Ṁ100

538 odds here. Bought some to balance things out to match them - Brazil is still too high (currently it has implied odds of over 200% to make it) but there's no direct way to short it without just buying everyone else. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-world-cup-predictions/

@ShakedKoplewitz yes, currently it is like a subsidy for the market

Shaked Koplewitz

bought Ṁ30

@egroj Alright, left some subsidy in there but it's broadly reasonable now. Too lazy to keep messing until it's exactly right.

@NekoHime and everyone else, be aware that this market will resolve to 8 answers, so a probability of 12.5% is equivalent to 100%, and you should divide all possible payments by 8

bought Ṁ10 United States at 4%

bought Ṁ15 Poland at 2%

bought Ṁ25 United States at 4%

bought Ṁ9 United States at 4%

bought Ṁ4 Spain at 8%

bought Ṁ4 France at 9%

sold Ṁ14 Senegal from 4% to 3%

sold Ṁ15 England at 8%

bought Ṁ15 England at 8%

bought Ṁ14 Senegal from 3% to 4%

sold Ṁ14 Japan at 6%

sold Ṁ15 Croatia at 6%

bought Ṁ15 Croatia at 6%

bought Ṁ14 Japan at 6%

bought Ṁ25 Netherlands at 7%

sold Ṁ22 Portugal at 8%

sold Ṁ4 Portugal at 8%

bought Ṁ10 United States from 3% to 4%

bought Ṁ250 Portugal from 6% to 8%

bought Ṁ12 Japan at 6%

bought Ṁ10 France from 9% to 10%

bought Ṁ40 Japan from 5% to 6%

bought Ṁ5 Australia at 2%

bought Ṁ5 Morocco at 3%

bought Ṁ5 Switzerland at 4%

bought Ṁ5 Portugal at 7%

bought Ṁ5 Japan at 5%

bought Ṁ5 Croatia at 6%

bought Ṁ4 Portugal from 6% to 7%

bought Ṁ4 France from 9% to 10%

bought Ṁ1 Switzerland at 4%

bought Ṁ20 Portugal at 6%

bought Ṁ20 Netherlands from 7% to 8%

bought Ṁ5 France from 9% to 10%

Jonathan Berman

bought Ṁ30 England at 8%

Jonathan Berman

bought Ṁ25 Spain at 9%

Jonathan Berman

bought Ṁ20 France from 9% to 10%

Jonathan Berman

bought Ṁ50 Brazil at 10%

Jonathan Berman

bought Ṁ20 Argentina at 10%

Jonathan Berman

bought Ṁ10 Argentina at 10%

Jonathan Berman

bought Ṁ5 England at 8%

Jonathan Berman

bought Ṁ10 Spain at 9%

Jonathan Berman

bought Ṁ10 Spain from 8% to 9%

Jonathan Berman

bought Ṁ20 Brazil at 10%

bought Ṁ5 South Korea at 2%

bought Ṁ50 Croatia at 6%

bought Ṁ15 Spain from 8% to 9%

bought Ṁ10 France from 9% to 10%

bought Ṁ17 Switzerland at 4%

sold Ṁ8 Portugal from 7% to 6%