Resolves YES if a bill sponsored or cosponsored by U.S. Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) that is related to prediction markets is introduced by March 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. Resolves NO otherwise. Bills eligible for resolution are those listed on Chris Murphy's personal website and/or on the congress.gov website.

For the purpose of this market, a bill is considered "related to prediction markets" if any of these terms (possibly up to capitalization or pluralization) appears in the short title, long title, official CRS summary, bill text (excluding all non-operative parts, such as whereas clauses or a "Findings" or "Purpose" section), or the text of any law that would be amended by the bill if passed (again excluding all non-operative parts in the proposed new version):

• "Betting market"

• "Decision market"

• "Event contract"

• "Event derivative"

• "Event futures market"

• "Idea future"

• "Information market"

• "Prediction market"

• "Predictive market"

Any version tracked by congress.gov or Chris Murphy's personal website will count.

Inspired by this tweet.