Will the Musk Twitter deal close by the end of 2023?

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resolved Oct 28

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YES

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There's already a similar market -- https://manifold.markets/SG/will-elon-musk-buy-twitter-this-yea -- but it's specifically about whether the deal closes in 2022. The deal does have an October 2022 deadline but I understand there's some provision for it to be extended by 6 months, to 2023 April 24. So this market has that as an end date.

UPDATE: The real question was originally meant to be "will it eventually close?" not about closing by some particular date. Of course "eventually" doesn't work for a prediction market so let's go with "by the end of 2023" as a proxy for "eventually". I have updated the close date (and now title) accordingly!

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Deal just closed: https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/10/27/twitter-elon-musk/ "Elon Musk took control of Twitter late Thursday as his $44 billion deal to takeover the company closed."

We're 10 days out from the deadline for the deal to close or else the trial will resume. Made a shorter-term market here:

the Math here seems off. I have 2999 YES at 53%. I sell 100, and the market drops all the way to 10%.

@AlexPower Yeah, the liquidity pool is very skewed towards YES for some reason.

Why do I have a loan for $0?

@BTE What do you mean?

@ahalekelly It literally says that at the top of my bets. Actually says that on several markets for me. One says I have a loan of $20.

Huh. Manifold used to loan you $20 to bet on each market, but that doesn't exist anymore. Does it say $0 loan on every market?

Maybe it says $0 loan on this market because you got a loan betting on this market back when loans existed, and then you sold your shares and returned the loan?

@ahalekelly This market was created May 28th, though. Loans were already gone by then, right?

@ScottLawrence Oh you're right, they existed March 1st - April 13th

@ahalekelly @BTE. My WAG is that this has something to do with the recently rolled-out comment tipping. (The feature that I can tip someone's comment and then un-tip seems weird, and loan-like.) BTE, are all the loan values multiples of M$5?

@ScottLawrence The tips don't go 5-10-15 they go 5-15-30-50-75-105

@ahalekelly Are tips anonymous? Can you tell that I tipped you? (My question to @BTE still stands, all multiples of M$5 are accessible tip amounts as long as there are multiple tippers.)

Oh, no, I'm sorry, I take that back. I see now that if one person tips, the next is forced to tip at least M$10, right? So it's not related. Sorry for the noise.

@ScottLawrence Huh interesting I saw someone share a screenshot on discord of tips in I think their notifications feed. But I don't see it anywhere, maybe that got removed. Just tipped you back so you can check

@ahalekelly I see nothin'. I imagine that'll be fixed sometime. The real question is: what happens if you tip me, I spend all my M$, and then you withdraw the tip? So, I spent all my M$ (doing some insider trading). If you please, go ahead and try and withdraw the tip and tell me what happens!

@ScottLawrence Ooh good question, done

@ahalekelly I have M$-5 in my account! Ah. I guess there's no reason anything exciting has to happen now, right? Anticlimactic.

@ScottLawrence Well at least we know there's no infinite money right

Actually there's a couple exploits 1. Make a bunch of alt accounts and tip the free M$1,000 to your main account 2. You can get n times leverage where n is the number of accounts. Person 1 tips Person 2, who invests it, Person 1 retracts the tip, and then they can either invest those same dollars again, or repeat with a third person

@ahalekelly I'm not sure. The fact that an account can have negative M$ means that with collaboration, printing money is possible. Having negative M$ is functionally the same has having 0 M$. So you and I could conspire as follows. I start with M$0 and you start with M$100. You tip me up to a total of M$100, and you create a market. I bet NO on that market, you bet YES and resolve YES. (This accomplishes a transfer of M$100 to you.) Then you "withdraw" your tip. Now you have M$200, I have M$-100, so the total is unchanged, but the /effect/ is that M$100 exists where none did before.

@ahalekelly Yeah we're on the same page. Of course, your (1) is already accomplished by "create a market and arrange bets to transfer mana". I'm assuming people are already doing that, actually, cuz it's too obvious. The inevitable consequence of free M$ on sign-up.

Right. I don't think you even need to create any markets to do your scenario. Could I could tip you M$100, you tip me M$100 back, and then I withdraw my tip? Of course your account with M$-100 is now useless, and creating tons of Google accounts probably isn't too easy, but if you do this with a large amount of mana it could be worth your time.

@ahalekelly Right, now that tips exist, your way is much simpler. (I can buy M$ from Manifold. How long before there's a secondary market undercutting them?)

@ScottLawrence Wow yeah. Don't let the southeast asian click farms find out

@ScottLawrence answer to loan values being multiple of 5 is yes I believe so far $20 is the value I have seen for the loan. Still have one outstanding on a random market and can’t figure out how to make it go away.

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