How many people will follow Scott Alexander's example and donate a kidney?

1.5kṀ3576

Oct 27

Zero :(

One

26%

A few (2-5)

32%

Ten-ish (6-17)

27%

Dozens (18-60)

A hundred-ish (61-149)

Hundreds (150-999)

Thousand+ (≥1000)

1.1%

Other

In other words, how many people will read @ScottAlexander's "My Left Kidney" and donate a kidney who wouldn't have otherwise?

I realize that could be a hard number to pin down. I'll add to the FAQ as questions arise in the comments.

FAQ

1. Does the kidney have to actually come out before it counts?

Let's say yes.

2. How do you verify that?

By default I'll believe people. Voice your suspicions in the comments!

3. What if someone had already started the process and Scott merely inspired them to finish?

We'll do the obvious thing: estimate probabilities and use the expectation of the delta from the Scottless counterfactual.

4. By when?

We'll discuss in the comments. I'd like the horizon to be long enough to capture everyone but also not let the market drag out indefinitely. So if the rate of new donations seems to be asymptotically approaching zero such that we can be very confident in one of the answers, we'll go ahead and resolve it.

5. How does 61 count as "a hundred-ish"?

It was tricky trading off fidelity to the English phrases and usefulness of bucket sizes. I may tweak these (suggestions solicited!) so don't bet too heavily until I confirm they're set in stone. (PS, oh, I guess you can't edit them! I guess they're set in stone then!)

Resolution Criteria

I'll defer to Scott and use my own judgment if Scott doesn't have an answer. I won't trade in this market. That way I can make any judgment calls without conflict of interest.