This market predicts whether the End Kidney Deaths Act, introduced by Rep. Josh Harder (CA-9) on August 13, 2024, or substantially similar legislation will be passed into law before the end of 2025.

The bipartisan bill proposes to provide $50,000 in refundable tax credits (spread over 5 years) to people who donate kidneys to strangers. The legislation aims to address the critical shortage of kidney donations in the US, where over 93,000 people are currently on the waitlist and approximately one-third are expected to die while waiting for a donor.

The bill was introduced with bipartisan support from Representatives Nicole Malliotakis (R-NY-11), Don Bacon (R-NE-02), and Joe Neguse (D-CO-02).

Resolution criteria:

• YES if the End Kidney Deaths Act is signed into law before December 31, 2025

• YES if alternative legislation providing at least $25,000 in compensation for living kidney donors is signed into law before December 31, 2025

• NO if no legislation providing at least $25,000 in compensation for kidney donors becomes law by December 31, 2025