Conditional on EMBRACING the Anti-Settings Principle, will Manifold stay on its rocketship trajectory?

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resolved Jul 20

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Anti-Settings Principle: https://blog.bmndr.co/choices Stay tuned for specifics on what "staying on its rocketship trajectory" means but it will be something ascertainable from https://manifold.markets/analytics This is one half of a decision market. The idea is to see which choice would yield the better outcome for Manifold and the community. The other half, for the other choice, is here: https://manifold.markets/dreev/conditional-on-rejecting-the-antise Close date updated to 2022-07-20 11:59 pm Mar 15, 4:00pm: Shall we go with daily active users > 200 as the operationalization of "stays on its rocketship trajectory"?

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DAU is the metric that we look to internally (that's why it's tracked first on manifold.markets/analytics ). Other trailing things we could look to include activity per user, or revenue, but I think these are fairly noisy for now and we should place more emphasis later.

@Austin: That sounds right and good and correct! I wasn't sure where y'all stood. In the Discord, people often suggest settings and customizations that they'd like to see and I wasn't seeing as much pushback as seemed ideal to me, so I created this pair of markets as a way to argue in favor of the anti-settings principle. (Interestingly, for a decision market like this it doesn't matter much how we pick which option -- embracing or rejecting -- you've actually taken. Traders can and should just participate in both and if it's effectively a coin flip which market is voided, that doesn't affect your trading strategies. Except for how much time/effort/attention is worth paying, of course.) Key question for the founders: what metric should we use for Manifold's success? Something like steadily increasing number of active users? Steadily increasing total trading volume?

I'm very curious what @dreev (or anyone else) thinks about where Manifold currently is on the anti-settings spectrum. I think we're quite anti-settings atm (partly out of lack of dev time but mostly by product design choice), and perhaps need to dial this down a bit and allow more user customizations.