Will Count Binface earn back his deposit (get =5% of the vote) in the Clacton by-election?

Question

If the election does not occur this year, or if Binface does not finally stand, resolves N/A.

https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/guidance-candidates-and-agents-uk-parliamentary-general-elections-great-britain/nominations/submitting-your-nomination-papers/deposit#:~:text=Candidates%20who%20poll%20more%20than%205%25%20of%20the%20total%20valid%20votes%20cast%20in%20the%20constituency%20will%20have%20their%20deposit%20returned.%20Those%20candidates%20who%20have%20polled%20less%20than%2C%20or%20equal%20to%2C%205%25%20of%20the%20total%20valid%20votes%20cast%20will%20lose%20their%20deposit.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 98% chance (12 traders, as of Jul 11, 2026).

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