Resolution criteria

• What counts as "solved":

  • It doesn't have to be formally accepted by the Clay institute, but it should be generally accepted as clearly correct in essence

  • A lean proof is not required

  • Minor proof errors are accepted, as long as they don't interfere with the consensus belief that the proof is essentially correct

• Timing

  • If a proof is released before 2028 and it is ambiguous whether it meets this criteria, I may wait arbitrarily until the consensus becomes clear to resolve.

  • A proof that is created before 2028 but not publicly announced until after the deadline does not count.

• Multiple choice

  • Multiple answers can resolve yes; all qualifying answers count

  • For a company to resolve yes, the solution must be pursued by a company employee as part of company work, or by a model operating broadly under company direction.

    • E.g. a randomer on Twitter who solves it using Claude would resolve Claude yes but would not resolve Anthropic

  • For a model to resolve yes, it must be explicitly clear that the model was used for the solution

    • E.g. GDM announcing the result doesn't automatically resolve Gemini yes, if the result is some specialised internal model.

I won't trade except to set the initial probabilities