Which of the following breakthroughs will Deepmind achieve by 2030?
24
86
680
2030
21%
Find a cure for cancer, Alzheimer's or Diabetis
29%
Find a room temperature superconductor, highly efficient photovoltaic cells, or an ultra-strong lightweight material

Which of the following breakthroughs will Google Deepmind (or one of their spinoff companies like Isomorphic Labs) achieve by 2030?

In order to qualify as true:

For finding a cure for cancer, Alzheimer's, or diabetes, the drug has to be approved by a major country's regulatory authority, such as the FDA in the United States, EMA in the European Union, or CFDA in China, indicating it has passed all clinical trials and is deemed safe and effective for public use.

For discovering a room temperature superconductor, highly efficient photovoltaic cells, or an ultra-strong lightweight material, the materials have to be commercialized, meaning they are available on the market and being used or integrated into products or systems within industries such as energy, construction, or electronics.

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:

What counts as curing cancer? If they cure one kind of cancer? If develop a bespoke drug that cures a single person of cancer would that count?

@ChrisEdwards Hey, I asked ChatGPT to support answering to these questions to make the market as fair as possible. See the answers below:

  1. Curing cancer here means developing a treatment that is effective and safe for the general population, and is approved by regulatory bodies like the FDA or EMA.

  2. Curing one kind of cancer counts as a breakthrough for that particular type of cancer. [So this is YES]

  3. Developing a bespoke drug that cures a single person would not count, as it would need to be a treatment effective for a broader patient population to be considered a cure. [So this is NO]

"highly efficient photovoltaic cells, or an ultra-strong lightweight material" is a bit vague.

A 10% efficiency improvement over SOTA technology would be highly efficient and impressive, but very different impact from room temperature superconductor.

@ProjectVictory i was thinking about how to make it more specific. However, I think that if there was not a large improvement, they would not even try to commercialize it. The description mentions commercialization specifically. Do you think it's enough?

@SimoneRomeo Iterative improvements get patented and commercialized all the time.

@ProjectVictory as I have already published this question, I'm thinking to create a poll to help me define what the fair percentage increase should be. But what do you mean with sota what benchmark is it?

More related questions