Before the rooster crows on the morning of November 6, will Donald Trump have denied the election results three times?
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95
แน€6264
Nov 11
59%
chance

Roosters typically crow around an hour before dawn, which in Washington DC is 6:41 am on November 6th. So we'll use 5:41 AM Eastern Time as the cutoff for this.

Will Donald Trump make three separate statements denying the election results before then? A statement is considered a denial of the results if it is specifically contradicting a statement by an official, widely recognized news source about the outcome of the election. Some examples:

"We won this election," if the election has not been called yet (or has been called for Kamala) - counts as a denial

"I call for a recount" - does not count as a denial

"This election is not yet decided," if the election has been called by major news sources - counts as a denial

The statements don't have to be in separate speeches, but have to be separated by at least one sentence. "We won Pennsylvania, we won Wisconsin, and we won Michigan" only counts as one (if they hadn't been called yet)

I won't trade on this market as it's a little subjective.

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bought แน€50 YES

part of me things he won't get up early enough in the morning, but, I think "yes" is a safer bet

What if he says that illegal immigrants are voting, like he has in previous statements? Does it need to deny a result, or only contradict the integrity of the voting process?

This is a hilarious market. I'm not betting but it is funny af.

Anybody want to dig into roughly what the count would have been last time?

bought แน€50 NO

Had to put a bet in on this market only because i think itโ€™s brilliant.

Why 5:41 instead of 6:41?

@Qoiuoiuoiu "Roosters typically crow around an hour before dawn, which in Washington DC is 6:41 am on November 6th. So we'll use 5:41 AM Eastern Time as the cutoff for this."

@TiredCliche oh I misinterpreted sorry

@Qoiuoiuoiu I forgive you.

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