Will Trump declare that he himself was the victor of the 2024 Presidential Election before a major paper has called it?
The list of major papers is exactly: CNN, NBC News, MSNBC, CBS News, ABC News, The Associated Press, and Fox News, which is the ordered list of who called the 2020 election.
This counts written or spoken words by Donald Trump: either said aloud (into a microphone / on video / widely reported and not disputed by major, respected news agencies), or on his personal or campaign’s social media accounts.
See a similar question above him declaring on election night: /MatthewBarnett/will-trump-declare-victory-on-elect
Market will extend as needed.
1,000
3.00The president-elect declared victory in a speech from Florida at 2:30 a.m. ET
Fox News projects Donald Trump defeats Kamala Harris to become 47th president of the United States
Published November 6, 2024 1:46am EST
The list of major papers is exactly: CNN, NBC News, MSNBC, CBS News, ABC News, The Associated Press, and Fox News
Fox News qualifies. Resolves NO
“I would like to thank the American people for the extraordinary honor of being elected your 47th president and your 45th president,” said Trump, who also claimed to have won the popular vote.
https://fortune.com/2024/11/06/trump-prematurely-claims-election-victory-2024-state-results/
It was not until 2am, hours after that speech that Fox news said he won.
https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/2024-presidential-election-results-news
@HillaryClinton the fox news call was before 10:46pm PST, before Trump's, judging by the article ( https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-projects-donald-trump-defeats-kamala-harris-become-47th-president-united-states ) and adjusting for the timezone (using the fortune article for the trump declaring victory himself time)
Which major news network said he won? Seems like the opposite per this:
https://fortune.com/2024/11/06/trump-prematurely-claims-election-victory-2024-state-results/
See a similar question above him declaring on election night: Will Trump declare victory on election night 2024?YES
I guess I think the market is currently a bit overconfident since, if it's a blowout for Trump, the election might be called early, allowing him to declare victory after the race is called while still doing so on election night. I think there's like a 25% chance of a blowout for Trump FWIW.
@Odoacre True although maybe if it's a blowout for Harris, Trump would rush to declare victory super early in the night, to preempt the race being called. You're probably right though.
@MatthewBarnett aren't you confusing this market with the other one?
https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-trump-declare-victory-on-elect
@RatUziCat No, I don't think I'm confused here. I am assuming Trump will probably try to declare victory early, and by "early" I mean "tonight". However, if the election is also called early because of a blowout, that could mean he'd declare victory after a major outlet has called the race, forcing this question to resolve as NO.
I’m going to start taking it as a compliment when Poly copies one of my markets: Trump claims victory before AP calls the election?