Roosters typically crow around an hour before dawn, which in Washington DC is 6:41 am on November 6th. So we'll use 5:41 AM Eastern Time as the cutoff for this.

Will Donald Trump make three separate statements denying the election results before then? A statement is considered a denial of the results if it is specifically contradicting a statement by an official, widely recognized news source about the outcome of the election. Some examples:

"We won this election," if the election has not been called yet (or has been called for Kamala) - counts as a denial

"I call for a recount" - does not count as a denial

"This election is not yet decided," if the election has been called by major news sources - counts as a denial

The statements don't have to be in separate speeches, but have to be separated by at least one sentence. "We won Pennsylvania, we won Wisconsin, and we won Michigan" only counts as one (if they hadn't been called yet)

I won't trade on this market as it's a little subjective.