Roosters typically crow around an hour before dawn, which in Washington DC is 6:41 am on November 6th. So we'll use 5:41 AM Eastern Time as the cutoff for this.
Will Donald Trump make three separate statements denying the election results before then? A statement is considered a denial of the results if it is specifically contradicting a statement by an official, widely recognized news source about the outcome of the election. Some examples:
"We won this election," if the election has not been called yet (or has been called for Kamala) - counts as a denial
"I call for a recount" - does not count as a denial
"This election is not yet decided," if the election has been called by major news sources - counts as a denial
The statements don't have to be in separate speeches, but have to be separated by at least one sentence. "We won Pennsylvania, we won Wisconsin, and we won Michigan" only counts as one (if they hadn't been called yet)
I won't trade on this market as it's a little subjective.
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@dominic yeah his speech was delayed from when I expected and he ended up calling it a few minutes after the news.
[edit: site was lagging and I duplicated my comment]
[edit: site was lagging and I duplicated my comment]
This is not verbatim, but in the first four minutes of his Minneapolis speech on Fox he says:
I’m honored to be elected the 47th president
We won Wisconsin
We won the popular vote
All of these are likely to go his way, but as of yet I have not seen a major source call any of these for Trump.
@DevonFritz not necessarily. If it LOOKS like he won't win a swing state, he'll almost certainly start it up
@DevonFritz it also counts as denial if he declares victory before the election is called.
@LarsOsborne It’ll be a bit of a judgment call. I think “I won X state if not for the illegal immigrants that voted” is a denial, but just saying “Lots of illegal immigrants voted” isn’t specifically denying a result.
Had to put a bet in on this market only because i think it’s brilliant.
@Qoiuoiuoiu "Roosters typically crow around an hour before dawn, which in Washington DC is 6:41 am on November 6th. So we'll use 5:41 AM Eastern Time as the cutoff for this."