https://twitter.com/apples_jimmy/status/1703695596396441741
Resolves yes if any time before 01/01/2026 it is revealed that a major AI lab (OpenAI, Deepmind, Anthropic, etc) believed they had AGI internally before October 2023.
I’m betting NO based on these two vague judgements:
AGI feels like fantasy to me. That’s not a reasoned opinion; that’s how I feel. However, I also think that it makes a lot of sense to judge AGI as unlikely to have been developed at this early stage.
Although I do agree with the markets that it’s more likely that an AI lab thinks they’ve achieved AGI than that they actually have, I have the vague idea that people at AI labs are “smart” and that they wouldn’t have such an erroneous belief. This is shakier than 1, and I understand people betting this market up on the grounds of human fallibility.
Any comments/ things I haven’t considered?
@MartinRandall That'd work, whatever would make it into an official stance of the organization.