Will it be publicly revealed before 2030 that AGI had actually already been achieved before the year 2000?
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@cloudprism I was going to give you one of those universal dovetailers or schmidhuber machines that solves every problem with optimal Big-O complexity but with a multiplier so bad the universe would end before it does anything interesting.
There are some strange strands of thinking - some quite ancient, some very recent - that once you've got artificial time production you really lose your confidence about which time you're in at all.
Clarification request: how will this question resolve if it is revealed before the closing of this question that AI was achieved before the year 2000, and that we are not really located before 2030?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
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