Resolution source is: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

I'll check the approval rating at 0900h ET on both days

Resolves N/A if 538 is discontinued or Trump is not president on resolution date

• Update 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Updated:

  • Starting Point: Use Donald Trump's FiveThirtyEight net approval rating exactly one month after inauguration at 0900h ET.

  • Resolution Date: Moved by one month from the original closure date to accommodate the updated starting point.

  • N/A Conditions: Resolves N/A if FiveThirtyEight is discontinued or Trump is not president on the resolution date.

• Update 2025-19-01 (PST): • Source Selection: Use the "polls of adults" aggregate from FiveThirtyEight's polling data. (AI summary of creator comment)

• Update 2025-02-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Starting Position Update:

  • Use a fixed net approval of +2.5 for Trump as his starting rating.

Resolution Criteria Update:

• The market will resolve YES if Trump's net approval is at -7.5 or lower on Feb 20 2026, and NO if he's doing better than that.

• N/A conditions remain as originally stated.

Source Update:

• Use the FiveThirtyEight page at this link for resolution data, noting that the data now reflects a blended average.