Will I run my first half marathon in 1:54 or less?
19
242
735
Jul 7
48%
chance

I have been running thrice a week more or less consistently and decided to sign up for a half marathon on a whim. This would be my first half marathon ever, and I plan to follow an adapted "Less is More" training plan inspired by @CrissmanLoomis

My current estimate for a half marathon is 1:59 from my Garmin watch and around 2:05 from various internet calculators. A 1h 54 mins (5:24/km) target seems both quite doable to me, but challenging enough to require serious effort. The longest I've ever run is 12.1km one week ago, and have run 8 runs above 10k, ever (all within the last year). I ran a 10k in the same race last year with a time of 57:57 which i later lowered to 57:00 (5:42/km). My 5k PB is 26:15 (5:15/km).

Factors for:

  • I'm quite motivated and naturally enjoy running

  • Have been running fairly consistently to start the year so I have a good base of mileage

  • I'm starting from a low base so it's possible i have easy gains with a more structured plan. I never do consistent tempo or speed runs for example

  • I'm 92kg now, and expect to lose some weight by July which should improve my running economy

Factors against:

  • goal is probably too aggressive given my running history

  • Not very conscientious in general and dislike structured routines

  • My motivation is high right now but may wane (<15% chance)

  • Nagging knee injury that I plan to visit a physio for

  • 92kg - no guarantee I won't gain weight by race time

The marathon is in 110 days. I will sign up later today and begin my 3 day a week training plan on Wednesday, and share a running log

Resolution Criteria:

YES:
I successfully run the half marathon and finish in a time of 1 hours 54 mins or less.

NO:
- I fail to participate in the half marathon for personal or injury reasons. I don't plan to not run unless the situation is truly unavoidable
- I participate but don't finish in less than 1:54 . If the race is delayed by a maximum of 1 more month, I will extend the deadline and resolve the question normally.

N/A:
If the race is delayed for more than 1 month from the original date or canceled for whatever reason.

I will only be betting YES here, and not selling but my YES bets will be calibrated to my confidence over time

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How is the training going, @diadematus ?

Finally figured out how to set up interval training on Garmin and did 5 intervals at 4:58/km or less…now I have a good benchmark for further intervals. VO2Max up to 45, hrv plunging probably due to increased exercise or suboptimal recovery

meta: appreciate the confidence but a 76% chance that i'll run a 1:54 half marathon strikes me as wildly optimistic. I'd currently put my odds at ~30%. If I trained perfectly for the next 12 weeks i'd probably run a 1:58 and I'm hoping i'll lose 6 or 7kg in that time to make up the rest

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bought Ṁ100 NO

@diadematus Yes, you still have a ways to go. I don't think your log is up to date, but given that you've run over a kilometer at 4:45, I don't think speedwork at 4:58 will get your heart rate over 90% of max.

Have you lost 6-7kg before?

knee niggle so i decided not to start with interval training this week and do a tempo run (unfasted, sadly) instead. was targeting 6km at 5:25/km but went all out and broke my 5k PR by 30 seconds, and ran the 6km at 5:13/km overall. VO2Max slightly up to 44.

update: visited my parents over easter so I only had time for 2 runs: 1 recovery run and a labored long run (11.1km). The plan expects some missed sessions so I won't try to do a makeup session but will try to adhere more exactly moving forward. OTOH I'm losing weight at a ~0.5kg/week pace so that's positive development. Current VO2Max according to Garmin is 43mL/kg/min

I created a template Training Log for you with a chart and half-marathon time estimates!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Pd4u1GNHfZdr5pFsoHqlYMSHkDKWp9Ahrq9uAVufYFE/edit?usp=sharing

Let me know if you have any suggestions or requests.

@CrissmanLoomis thanks! this is going to be quite helpful. i'll try to see if i understand the training log well enough, fill out the early portions and revert with any questions. does it account for if i don't stick to the program faithfully? e.g if i run some interval runs faster than expected

easy recovery run instead of interval training today - went all out for the last mile and randomly set a 1 mile PR

@diadematus Do you think doing recovery runs in place of other runs will be common?

@CrissmanLoomis not really. i went out too hard over the previous long run so i decided to be extra cautious and not do really hard interval runs just 48 hours later.

went out for my first long slow 10k of the training plan and in the least surprising turn of events got carried away and turned it into a tempo run, running 11.1km at 5:41/km and breaking my 10k PB by 36 seconds in the process. Not that i'm too disappointed but i plan to watch my recovery more closely next week and maybe replace my interval run with an easy 5k/6k. also now that i have the pb itch out of the way, committing to actually running my long runs super slow

@diadematus Oops! That sounds like fun. Can you set your Garmin watch to monitor your pace and alert you when it's too fast or slow? This is key for setting pace during the half since excitement will push you faster than best pace.

Work on running the pace in the Less is More plan for the long runs. In the beginning, they took a bit of effort to keep up with the pace, but later, they were easy, as they should be.

Keep up the last km dash! Feel free to ignore pacing toward the end of the longs and practice negative splits. 😉

Crunching the numbers on your PB 5k gives a half-marathon estimated time of 2:01 and your 10k projects to 2:10, which are 5% and 10% slower than your target time, respectively. I was able to improve around 5% over my initial running times, so it looks challenging. When did you run your 5K PB?

@CrissmanLoomis my 5k PB is 6 months old, as was my 10k PB which is just lowered to 56:24 today. I was a bit misled by Garmin predictions when deciding my target but I'm up for the challenge anyway. The biggest lever i have apart from training is potentially losing 5-7kg over the 15 weeks of training which should hopefully account for the extra 5%. If i'm not around 85kg by race time I will be busted i think.

Awesome! I'm honored to see you pick up the mantle. 🙇‍♂

Some specifics from my training:

Are you running while fasted, either before breakfast or while having a low calorie (<500) day? This is the biggest impact on VO2max, increasing the gain from exercise by 3.7 times.

Sauna after running gives further VO2max leverage (or sweat suit or hot bath) of 0.4 times. Only 15 minutes of whatever is enough.

Pacing-wise, the only time I wasn't running at max effort was during long, slow distance runs. For those, I practiced breathing through my nose and tracking my pace. This is a good time to get used to using a smart watch to let you know when you're off target pace.

For the tempo runs, although the Less is More plan has a listed pace, I generally ignored this, and ran the distance as fast as I could every time. Conservation is not as important during these shorter runs, and they give you a better indication of what your max pace can be for the half.

Speed work is speed, of course. Max speed! For race estimation, I used my fastest sprint time.

I could tweak your spreadsheet to include the Riegel formula estimates for half marathon time, with charts. Let me know if that would be helpful.

Good luck!

I know Crissman did really well but I’ll caution against emulating training from outliers. I would especially caution against running three hard workouts a week if you’re only going to run three times a week (tempos and long runs count as ‘hard’). That’s a recipe for injury for most runners, especially if you’re heavy and trying to lose weight. Quality intensity workouts and your long runs will be key but don’t forget to do a bunch of easy running. No more than two workouts a week, and do your long runs really easy at first. Intersperse with easy runs. What worked for Crissman doesn’t work for most runners.

I’ll add: pace yourself for different distances. Your tempo runs may be at marathon pace, half marathon pace or 10k pace, depending on your target and how long the intervals and total distance are. If you’re doing speed work ideally you’ll have a specific pace for different intervals. You don’t run 200s like 400s or like mile repeats. Varying paces is a crucial skill to develop.

@CrissmanLoomis Thanks for your insights! I mostly run in the evenings mostly because it's much cooler then but I'm open to trying one run (maybe tempo) in the morning while i'm fasted. I'm doing 16:8 for weight loss so doing a run at 10am would fit nicely into my window. I might experiment with it for 2-3 weeks and see if I enjoy running in the morning at all, and if there's any benefits.

I take a hot shower after running so I imagine that should count as a makeshift sauna - although I don't do it deliberately i might be more deliberate about timing and duration moving forward.

Re: pacing - i had some lower bound paces in mind when creating my training spreadsheet but i already have disregarded them in the first week. I will probably have to keep adjusting it moving forward, or just run hard intuitively until i get a good sense of my times and get back to a structured approach.

I didn't bother with the Riegel formula stuff from your training spreadsheet because it seemed like too much work but I suspect it's brilliant - so I'm absolutely opening to some help in incorporating it into mine - might make training much more interesting!

@NicoDelon I go to the gym 3 times a week, and run 3 days a week. I could add an easy run on Mondays in lieu of a rest day but is it really worth it? I was attracted to Crissman's plan precisely because i don't want to make running a big part of my life and run 4 or 5 times a week. At any rate, I'll try it for 2-3 weeks and see how I respond to the "hard" workouts - if I'm recovering well and not feeling fatigued then I'll keep it otherwise I'm open to doing more easy runs and keeping the long runs super easy

@diadematus Doing the tempo fasted is great. This is the strongest boost to your VO2max, so quadrupling it will be a big boost.

Comparatively, a sauna/hot bath is about a tenth of the benefit of fasted training, so weigh it lower accordingly. I don't think the shower is as significant as a 15-minute hot bath but prioritize the fasted tempo run over taking a bath.

In my new version of the training log, I removed the pace targets. Aside from the long runs, you should run as fast as you can for that distance, so setting a pace is gratuitous. The ultimate guide of how you did is what the Riegal estimate of half-marathon pace is. Do your best, and then check the chart to see the run measured up to your goal.

@NicoDelon

>Varying paces is a crucial skill to develop.

I'd contest this. A specific pace should be a concern only in the long runs, which are best left to the Garmin watch alerts. For the other runs, push the pace where you can. You'll naturally run faster for the speed work and an appropriate pace for the tempo runs.

@CrissmanLoomis Contest as you wish but you’ve just conceded that you run different distances at different paces.

Running intervals as fast as you can means you’re going to slow down over your repeats and may not be able to finish the set. Running tempos as fast as you can also means you’re probably going to have to slow down. These are terrible strategies for a race. The first thing you learn when racing long distances is: pace yourself, don’t start too fast!

I’m sorry, I don’t mean to totally dismiss the value of your odd training plan but it’s very unwise to extrapolate from your odd experience like that.

@NicoDelon Thanks for the response. It helps understand our different models of training.

Yes, I definitely slow down over the intervals! Intervals are unrelated to race pace and pacing in general. The purpose of the intervals is to exceed 100% of sustainable VO2max. The body's adaptation to speed work is fundamentally different from aerobic exercise. Tempo and long, slow-distance runs increase the body's capacity to convert oxygen into energy. At the mitochondrial level, this increases the amount of mitochondria. When exceeding 100% of the sustainable level, increasing mitochondria doesn't help; you can't get enough oxygen to power the mitochondria you have. Instead, the body responds by increasing the efficiency of your existing mitochondria. Paper: Training-Induced Changes in Mitochondrial Content and Respiratory Function in Human Skeletal Muscle

My metric for speedwork is heart rate, not pace. Ideally, it should exceed 90% of max heart rate during each speed interval.

10 min warmup, 3 sets of 2 min speed, 3 min rest.

For estimate race finish time, I just use the first interval distance and time. After that, as you say, the time drops down for each successive interval. The point is to keep the heart rate over an average of 90%. It doesn't seem like Captain has done intervals before, so he might gain a lot of VO2max capacity from this.

@CrissmanLoomis why exactly is fasted tempo so great for VO2Max?

@diadematus A good question. I reviewed the studies on it, and found the VO2max benefit during fasting did not replicate in some other trials, but the overall benefits of increasing ability to metabolize fat do. Here's a good study on it: Beneficial metabolic adaptations due to endurance exercise training in the fasted state

Since the body is low on carbohydrates after a fast or before breakfast, it's forced to metabolize fats instead of carbs, which improves endurance metabolism by allowing the body to draw on more fat oxidation for energy instead of just carbs.