I've run 95km thus far (20 Feb). I ran 448km in 2023, 180km in 2022, and 322km in 2021. My long runs are getting consistently above 10km so that is a bullish sign. On the other hand, i'm more motivated and more consistent than usual to start the year so I'm not sure how long that will last. I have the luxury of being able to run all year, weatherwise, with a brief rainy period in June/July where it might not be as easy.

I'll share a spreadsheet with my weekly/cumulative distance run once this hits 10 bettors. Resolves YES as soon as I hit 800km or NO if i don't before Jan 1st 2025. I doubt the goal will be so out of reach that I'll have to resolve NO early but that is a possibility. I'll resolve N/A if I get some severe physical impairment (not normal running injury) that precludes the possibility a good-faith attempt of reaching my goal or for other subjective force majeure events.

I'll only be betting YES on this market, because let's face it, I will very likely do it ;)