Will I run 800km this year?
11
177
แน€1k
Dec 31
84%
chance

I've run 95km thus far (20 Feb). I ran 448km in 2023, 180km in 2022, and 322km in 2021. My long runs are getting consistently above 10km so that is a bullish sign. On the other hand, i'm more motivated and more consistent than usual to start the year so I'm not sure how long that will last. I have the luxury of being able to run all year, weatherwise, with a brief rainy period in June/July where it might not be as easy.

I'll share a spreadsheet with my weekly/cumulative distance run once this hits 10 bettors. Resolves YES as soon as I hit 800km or NO if i don't before Jan 1st 2025. I doubt the goal will be so out of reach that I'll have to resolve NO early but that is a possibility. I'll resolve N/A if I get some severe physical impairment (not normal running injury) that precludes the possibility a good-faith attempt of reaching my goal or for other subjective force majeure events.

I'll only be betting YES on this market, because let's face it, I will very likely do it ;)

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Had a slight slump in motivation so I didn't run for a while but I'm back in biznizz. currently at 247.9km, 18.7km behind plan

visited my parents for Easter so I only had time for 2 runs this week for a total of 17.1km...still exactly on target. my half marathon training should ramp up significantly in the coming weeks which will determine if i can establish a good buffer

For the first time this year, I'm exactly on course to run 800km for the year having run 183km so far. If i keep doing 20km+ weeks I will now start building a 5km/week safety margin

Veloviewer thinks i will barely get there, but given my blistering start, I have less room for a slump or error than I imagined

@diadematus How serious are you about the half marathon? Youโ€™ll run it unless you get injured, right? When is it? Would you run 3-4 times a week to train for it?

@NicoDelon How serious are you about the marathon? 9.5 on a scale of 1-10. Unless i get an injury or some personal tragedy i will definitely run. It's in 15 weeks and I have a 3-day a week training plan underway already

signed up for a half marathon and will be starting a structured plan so this is even more bullish :) - https://manifold.markets/diadematus/will-i-run-my-first-half-marathon-i

i ran a little longer than usual today inspired by @NicoDelon's sly NO bets ;) ...still 12km behind target though, but if I can keep my long runs above 8km I'll be well ahead of target by end of March

Have you signed up for a race? Do you have specific fitness goals?

@NicoDelon I don't have any specific running goals in mind, just to do more and more consistent running because I enjoy it and want to get better at it. Last year I did a 10k on a whim after a month of consistency so I might decide to step up to half marathon traininng at some point. My main fitness goal is https://manifold.markets/diadematus/will-i-lose-at-least-12kg-by-august