What will be my first half marathon time?
Mini
3
97
Jul 7
14%
<1:54
19%
1:54:01 - 1:58:59
26%
1:59 - 2:03
15%
2:03:01 - 2:07
14%
>2:07
13%
Won't finish

Offshoot of: https://manifold.markets/diadematus/will-i-run-my-first-half-marathon-i

tldr: I plan to run my first half marathon in ~9 weeks. I started training for 3 weeks, then stopped for a bit but now I'm back. My original goal looks very ambitious now so I'm creating this with more options/more realistic times. Please read the original question for further backstory. Will resolve based on my Strava final time (unfortunately race does not provide accurate finish times) which I'll upload here, or N/A if I don't run for some reason

I'll post updates only on the original question, and bet on this market best on my subjective self-assessment


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Resolving on the Strava time is unusual. Since this is your first half, I believe they will place you at the back of the pack no matter what goal time you enter. For me, that resulted in an about a 1% loss of time compared to my Apple Watch, due to having to run around people. Doesn't the half-marathon use RFID tags? Those are official times.

@CrissmanLoomis I'm honestly not sure. Last time i ran the 10k it was fairly random and I didn't have any official time but that may be because i joined the race late. I'll confirm either way, but I plan to use Strava as a backup option and bettors should account for any potential issues with that