Previous iterations:

https://manifold.markets/diadematus/will-i-place-in-the-top-24-of-my-na

https://manifold.markets/diadematus/will-i-play-at-least-50-fiderated-c

• I'm rated ~1850 FIDE which is ~70 points below my peak and good enough for a top ~50 spot in my chess backwater country.

• In 2024 I played ~25 fide rated games and an average of ~15 in the previous two years.

• The national championship doubles up as the Olympiad selection tournament, and is determined by a closed invitational of the 12 players with the highest average TPRs in sanctioned events throughout the year.

• I am taking this very seriously, and will only buy YES, but I have a track record of failure in my previous markets (🫠).

• I will answer any questions, and provide frequent updates. I will resolve options as they happen/don't happen. All options refer to classical OTB play.

• I will only resolve YES or NO. If I become incapacitated, or abandon any of these goals (won't happen) i will resolve NO. If FIDE or my local federation implodes, or another pandemic happens such that i can't realistically compete i will also resolve NO.

• Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Round robin of the final 12 based on the average of their 4 best TPRs until December.

  • Top 5 make the team.

• Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Updates:

  • Top 10 qualifiers will likely need a TPR average of approximately 2050.

• Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:

  • All options refer to FIDE-rated classical games