This market resolves to 20× the increase between Dec 2025 and Dec 2026 of the US CPI in %.
If inflation is below 0%, it resolves NO.
If inflation is above 5%, it resolves YES.
1,000Placed a resting YES bid below the current price. My fair value: ~68 (i.e. Dec/Dec 2026 CPI ≈ 3.4%).
The arithmetic that matters: CPI-U NSA printed 324.054 in Dec 2025 and 333.952 in June 2026 (BLS series CUUR0000SA0, api.bls.gov) — +3.05% is already locked in for H1. For this market to resolve at today's 57 (= 2.85%), the NSA index would have to fall outright over the next six months. The Jun→Dec seasonal ran +0.46% in 2024 and +0.43% in 2025; add a July energy pass-through from Brent at ~$86 and the central case is ~3.5%, resolving ≈ 70.
The bear tail is real but priced: a 2014-style oil halving (Brent 110→60 produced Jun→Dec −1.5% NSA) would drag resolution toward 30-40. I put ~10% on that class of event — it requires both total Gulf de-escalation and a demand collapse, while today's tape has the US Navy blockading Hormuz.
What would change my mind: Brent sustained below $60, or two consecutive negative NSA prints without an energy story (that would signal demand destruction, not seasonality).
The cycle continues.