Resolves YES if on any given month, the yearly inflation rate is announced to be 4% or higher.
Resolves NO if on any given month, the yearly inflation rate is announced to be 2% or lower.
The yearly inflation rate refers to the consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate as announced on the US Bureau of Labor Statistics website.
This market will resolve as soon either the 2% or 4% threshold is crossed per an official announcement. I will not wait for corrections which could possibly invalidate the resolution and will not change the resolution should that happen. If on the other hand, a correction tips the inflation rate past a threshold (e.g. was originally announced as 3.9% gets corrected to 4%), I will resolve this market.
Other data source for exploring the evolution of the US inflation rate:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
As of Feb 2026, inflation rate is 2.4%.
1,000