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MANIFOLD
On May 4th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?
18
Ṁ1kṀ4.3k
resolved May 12
Resolved
YES
x ≥ 2
Resolved
YES
x ≥ 4
Resolved
YES
x ≥ 6
Resolved
NO
x ≥ 8
Resolved
NO
x ≥ 10
Resolved
NO
x ≥ 12
Resolved
NO
x ≥ 14

Question

On May 4th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?

Resolution Criteria

Let x be the 7-day average ships passing on through the Strait of Hormuz on May 4th 2026. Using IMF PortWatch as the official source, each market above will resolve to YES if the inequality is true and will resolve to NO otherwise.

If the data are not available by end of day June 4th, I will resolve each market to NA.

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Shipping interruptions in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

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the average was 6

@100Anonymous Sorry about that. I will fix that shortly.

@100Anonymous it should be fixed. Thanks for spotting the error.

@dfish updated my review. thanks for responding quickly

@dfish this should be resolved.

@ChayaMaline, I will resolve as soon as possible. Right now it looks like the data are unavailable, and the CSV I downloaded was also empty.



@dfish thank you!