On May 4th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?

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Resolution Criteria

Let x be the 7-day average ships passing on through the Strait of Hormuz on May 4th 2026. Using IMF PortWatch as the official source, each market above will resolve to YES if the inequality is true and will resolve to NO otherwise.

If the data are not available by end of day June 4th, I will resolve each market to NA.

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Shipping interruptions in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, x ≥ 2, followed by x ≥ 4 and x ≥ 6 are most likely. See the market for live updates (2 traders, as of Apr 26, 2026).

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